Apple's long-standing annual iPhone release cadence, with new flagship models consistently launching each September, drives the 97.3% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 in 2026. This pattern has held since 2007, supported by ongoing supply chain activity, component sourcing, and executive signals around hardware upgrades including enhanced AI capabilities in the large language model features. While minor delays from technical issues or regulatory scrutiny have occurred in the past, they have never prevented a yearly launch, leaving only low-probability scenarios like major production halts as realistic swing factors before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$163,721 Vol.
$163,721 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$163,721 Vol.
$163,721 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual iPhone release cadence, with new flagship models consistently launching each September, drives the 97.3% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 in 2026. This pattern has held since 2007, supported by ongoing supply chain activity, component sourcing, and executive signals around hardware upgrades including enhanced AI capabilities in the large language model features. While minor delays from technical issues or regulatory scrutiny have occurred in the past, they have never prevented a yearly launch, leaving only low-probability scenarios like major production halts as realistic swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$163,721Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual iPhone release cadence, with new flagship models consistently launching each September, drives the 97.3% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 in 2026. This pattern has held since 2007, supported by ongoing supply chain activity, component sourcing, and executive signals around hardware upgrades including enhanced AI capabilities in the large language model features. While minor delays from technical issues or regulatory scrutiny have occurred in the past, they have never prevented a yearly launch, leaving only low-probability scenarios like major production halts as realistic swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$163,721Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing annual iPhone release cadence, with new flagship models consistently launching each September, drives the 97.3% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 in 2026. This pattern has held since 2007, supported by ongoing supply chain activity, component sourcing, and executive signals around hardware upgrades including enhanced AI capabilities in the large language model features. While minor delays from technical issues or regulatory scrutiny have occurred in the past, they have never prevented a yearly launch, leaving only low-probability scenarios like major production halts as realistic swing factors before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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