Apple’s established annual hardware cadence and the confirmed September 9, 2026 event drive the 98.7% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports and Apple’s invitation confirm new Pro models with 2nm A20 chips, variable-aperture cameras, and a first foldable device will reach the market in fall 2026, aligning with historical September launches. Traders assign low weight to rumors of a split schedule that could push the standard model into early 2027. Remaining risks include last-minute production delays from component shortages, regulatory hurdles on new features, or unexpected shifts in Apple’s segmentation strategy that might still allow resolution before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui99% peluang
$175,416 Vol.
$175,416 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
99% peluang
$175,416 Vol.
$175,416 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual hardware cadence and the confirmed September 9, 2026 event drive the 98.7% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports and Apple’s invitation confirm new Pro models with 2nm A20 chips, variable-aperture cameras, and a first foldable device will reach the market in fall 2026, aligning with historical September launches. Traders assign low weight to rumors of a split schedule that could push the standard model into early 2027. Remaining risks include last-minute production delays from component shortages, regulatory hurdles on new features, or unexpected shifts in Apple’s segmentation strategy that might still allow resolution before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$175,416Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual hardware cadence and the confirmed September 9, 2026 event drive the 98.7% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports and Apple’s invitation confirm new Pro models with 2nm A20 chips, variable-aperture cameras, and a first foldable device will reach the market in fall 2026, aligning with historical September launches. Traders assign low weight to rumors of a split schedule that could push the standard model into early 2027. Remaining risks include last-minute production delays from component shortages, regulatory hurdles on new features, or unexpected shifts in Apple’s segmentation strategy that might still allow resolution before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$175,416Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual hardware cadence and the confirmed September 9, 2026 event drive the 98.7% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports and Apple’s invitation confirm new Pro models with 2nm A20 chips, variable-aperture cameras, and a first foldable device will reach the market in fall 2026, aligning with historical September launches. Traders assign low weight to rumors of a split schedule that could push the standard model into early 2027. Remaining risks include last-minute production delays from component shortages, regulatory hurdles on new features, or unexpected shifts in Apple’s segmentation strategy that might still allow resolution before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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