Recent July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly increase and 3.4% year-over-year rate, following June’s sharper 0.4% decline, have anchored trader expectations for August around the Cleveland Fed’s 0.35% nowcast. Easing energy price pressures from the prior Iran-related shock, moderating shelter costs, and stable core readings near 0.2% monthly support the slight edge for a 0.4% print at 51.5% implied probability. Closely clustered odds on 0.1–0.3% outcomes reflect uncertainty over whether gasoline and food components will repeat their recent softening or reaccelerate amid still-elevated 3.4% headline levels. The September 11 release will resolve the market, with any deviation from nowcasts likely hinging on final shelter and energy components.