Polymarket traders price a 98.2% implied probability for the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29, driven by the Governing Council's March 18 decision to pause after prior cuts, with February CPI easing to 1.8% below the 2% target amid base effects and modest March job gains of 14,000 keeping unemployment at 6.7%. This reflects balanced inflation trajectory, resilient labor market, and projections for near-target price growth with subdued economic expansion. Consensus from RBC and National Bank anticipates no near-term changes. Realistic challenges include hotter March CPI data—due mid-April—or sharper slowdown prompting a 25 basis point cut, though recent indicators reinforce the hold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisione della Bank of Canada ad aprile?
Decisione della Bank of Canada ad aprile?
Nessuna modifica 98.2%
Aumento <1%
Diminuzione di 25 punti base <1%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$103,773 Vol.
$103,773 Vol.
29 apr 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Diminuzione di 25 punti base
1%
Nessuna modifica
98%
Aumento
1%
Nessuna modifica 98.2%
Aumento <1%
Diminuzione di 25 punti base <1%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$103,773 Vol.
$103,773 Vol.
29 apr 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$26,291 Vol.
<1%
Diminuzione di 25 punti base
$27,846 Vol.
1%
Nessuna modifica
$36,952 Vol.
98%
Aumento
$12,683 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 98.2% implied probability for the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29, driven by the Governing Council's March 18 decision to pause after prior cuts, with February CPI easing to 1.8% below the 2% target amid base effects and modest March job gains of 14,000 keeping unemployment at 6.7%. This reflects balanced inflation trajectory, resilient labor market, and projections for near-target price growth with subdued economic expansion. Consensus from RBC and National Bank anticipates no near-term changes. Realistic challenges include hotter March CPI data—due mid-April—or sharper slowdown prompting a 25 basis point cut, though recent indicators reinforce the hold.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$103,773Data di fine
29 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 98.2% implied probability for the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29, driven by the Governing Council's March 18 decision to pause after prior cuts, with February CPI easing to 1.8% below the 2% target amid base effects and modest March job gains of 14,000 keeping unemployment at 6.7%. This reflects balanced inflation trajectory, resilient labor market, and projections for near-target price growth with subdued economic expansion. Consensus from RBC and National Bank anticipates no near-term changes. Realistic challenges include hotter March CPI data—due mid-April—or sharper slowdown prompting a 25 basis point cut, though recent indicators reinforce the hold.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$103,773Data di fine
29 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 98.2% implied probability for the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29, driven by the Governing Council's March 18 decision to pause after prior cuts, with February CPI easing to 1.8% below the 2% target amid base effects and modest March job gains of 14,000 keeping unemployment at 6.7%. This reflects balanced inflation trajectory, resilient labor market, and projections for near-target price growth with subdued economic expansion. Consensus from RBC and National Bank anticipates no near-term changes. Realistic challenges include hotter March CPI data—due mid-April—or sharper slowdown prompting a 25 basis point cut, though recent indicators reinforce the hold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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