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icon for CA-30 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera
Elezioni·California Midterm

CA-30 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera

icon for CA-30 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera
Elezioni·California Midterm

CA-30 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera

Democratico 45-50% 37%

Democratico 35-40% 37%

Democratico 20-30% 37%

Democratico 60%+ 36%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Democratico 45-50% 37%

Democratico 35-40% 37%

Democratico 20-30% 37%

Democratico 60%+ 36%

Polymarket
NUOVO
icon for Democratico 60%+

Democratico 60%+

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Democratico 55-60%

Democratico 55-60%

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Democratico 50-55%

Democratico 50-55%

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Democratico 45-50%

Democratico 45-50%

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Democratico 40-45%

Democratico 40-45%

$0 Vol.

35%

icon for Democratico 35-40%

Democratico 35-40%

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Democratico 30-35%

Democratico 30-35%

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Democratico 20-30%

Democratico 20-30%

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Democratico 0-20%

Democratico 0-20%

$0 Vol.

36%

icon for Vittoria Repubblicana

Vittoria Repubblicana

$0 Vol.

35%

The 2026 CA-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman faces Republican Scott Meyers in the November 3, 2026 general election for California's 30th congressional district after both advanced from the June top-two primary. The solidly Democratic district, encompassing areas like Glendale, Burbank, and West Hollywood, gives Friedman structural advantages through incumbency, fundraising, and partisan voter registration. Trader consensus on exact victory margins remains balanced across buckets because limited public polling and early general-election dynamics leave room for variation in turnout or national midterm conditions. Developments such as candidate debates, endorsements, or shifts in voter enthusiasm could widen or narrow the spread before Election Day.

The 2026 CA-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Data di fine
3 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 CA-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman faces Republican Scott Meyers in the November 3, 2026 general election for California's 30th congressional district after both advanced from the June top-two primary. The solidly Democratic district, encompassing areas like Glendale, Burbank, and West Hollywood, gives Friedman structural advantages through incumbency, fundraising, and partisan voter registration. Trader consensus on exact victory margins remains balanced across buckets because limited public polling and early general-election dynamics leave room for variation in turnout or national midterm conditions. Developments such as candidate debates, endorsements, or shifts in voter enthusiasm could widen or narrow the spread before Election Day.

The 2026 CA-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Data di fine
3 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:39 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Correlati

icon for Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni della Camera CA-31 del 2026 con un margine tra il 20% e il 25%?

Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni della Camera CA-31 del 2026 con un margine tra il 20% e il 25%?

37%
Sì
icon for Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni della Camera del 2026 nel distretto CA-32 con un margine tra il 30% e il 35%?

Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni della Camera del 2026 nel distretto CA-32 con un margine tra il 30% e il 35%?

38%
Sì
icon for Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni della Camera CA-28 nel 2026 con un margine tra il 30% e il 35%?

Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni della Camera CA-28 nel 2026 con un margine tra il 30% e il 35%?

43%
Sì

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"CA-30 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 10 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Democratico 45-50%" a 37%, seguito da "Democratico 35-40%" a 37%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 37¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 37% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"CA-30 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Sep 2, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "CA-30 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera", esplora i 10 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "CA-30 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera" è "Democratico 45-50%" a 37%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 37% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Democratico 35-40%" a 37%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "CA-30 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.