Doug Ford’s repeated public affirmations that he intends to lead the Progressive Conservatives into a fourth term, combined with the party’s consistent polling lead near 42 percent and recent cabinet adjustments, underpin the 95.5 percent trader consensus against his departure by December 31. No leadership review or convention is scheduled before year-end, and internal discussions have remained limited to long-term contingency planning rather than active challenges. Recent by-election results and Ford’s positioning on trade matters have further stabilized his standing within the caucus. While an unforeseen health event, major scandal, or sudden caucus revolt could still prompt an early exit, the absence of any such catalyst in the final months of 2026 supports the current market pricing.