Official National Weather Service forecasts and numerical model consensus for Dallas on August 28 point to a high near 100°F under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light easterly winds, keeping conditions hot and dry with minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 98–101°F bins, as recent model runs show little day-to-day change and no incoming front or increased humidity to push readings notably higher or lower. Late-August climatology places the long-term average high at roughly 95°F, so current guidance represents a modest positive anomaly driven by the dominant subtropical ridge rather than extreme heat. Traders appear to be pricing in the narrow uncertainty band typical of short-range temperature forecasts this close to the event.