**Northeast monsoon influence and stable synoptic conditions are the main drivers positioning 31°C as the leading outcome (47% implied probability) for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum temperature on September 10.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s 9 September forecast explicitly calls for a 26–32°C range under east to northeast winds of force 4 (occasionally 5 offshore), with sunny periods, a few showers mainly in the morning and evening, and low significant rainfall probability. This aligns with typical early-September climatology under monsoon flow, which suppresses extreme heat while allowing daytime highs in the low 30s when skies clear. Recent observations reinforce this: maximums on 9 September reached 32–33°C at some stations before the monsoon strengthened, with current readings around 29–30°C and sea surface temperatures near 27°C. Model consensus and regional forecasts show limited day-to-day variability, keeping 30–32°C outcomes dominant in trader pricing while assigning minimal probability to outliers below 29°C or above 33°C. The market-implied odds reflect the narrow uncertainty band around the official 26–32°C guidance, with resolution hinging on the next day’s verified maximum at the Observatory headquarters.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Hong Kong il 10 settembre?
La temperatura più alta di Hong Kong il 10 settembre?
31°C 46%
32°C 26%
30°C 25%
33°C 3%
NUOVO
$10,497 Vol.
NUOVO
$10,497 Vol.
10 set 2026
26°C o inferiore
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
25%
31°C
46%
32°C
26%
33°C
3%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C o superiore
<1%
31°C 46%
32°C 26%
30°C 25%
33°C 3%
NUOVO
$10,497 Vol.
NUOVO
$10,497 Vol.
10 set 2026
26°C o inferiore
$523 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$928 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,078 Vol.
1%
29°C
$2,106 Vol.
3%
30°C
$1,682 Vol.
25%
31°C
$725 Vol.
46%
32°C
$2,085 Vol.
26%
33°C
$724 Vol.
3%
34°C
$206 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$155 Vol.
<1%
36°C o superiore
$286 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Northeast monsoon influence and stable synoptic conditions are the main drivers positioning 31°C as the leading outcome (47% implied probability) for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum temperature on September 10.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s 9 September forecast explicitly calls for a 26–32°C range under east to northeast winds of force 4 (occasionally 5 offshore), with sunny periods, a few showers mainly in the morning and evening, and low significant rainfall probability. This aligns with typical early-September climatology under monsoon flow, which suppresses extreme heat while allowing daytime highs in the low 30s when skies clear.
Recent observations reinforce this: maximums on 9 September reached 32–33°C at some stations before the monsoon strengthened, with current readings around 29–30°C and sea surface temperatures near 27°C. Model consensus and regional forecasts show limited day-to-day variability, keeping 30–32°C outcomes dominant in trader pricing while assigning minimal probability to outliers below 29°C or above 33°C. The market-implied odds reflect the narrow uncertainty band around the official 26–32°C guidance, with resolution hinging on the next day’s verified maximum at the Observatory headquarters.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Sep 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,497Data di fine
10 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Northeast monsoon influence and stable synoptic conditions are the main drivers positioning 31°C as the leading outcome (47% implied probability) for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum temperature on September 10.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s 9 September forecast explicitly calls for a 26–32°C range under east to northeast winds of force 4 (occasionally 5 offshore), with sunny periods, a few showers mainly in the morning and evening, and low significant rainfall probability. This aligns with typical early-September climatology under monsoon flow, which suppresses extreme heat while allowing daytime highs in the low 30s when skies clear.
Recent observations reinforce this: maximums on 9 September reached 32–33°C at some stations before the monsoon strengthened, with current readings around 29–30°C and sea surface temperatures near 27°C. Model consensus and regional forecasts show limited day-to-day variability, keeping 30–32°C outcomes dominant in trader pricing while assigning minimal probability to outliers below 29°C or above 33°C. The market-implied odds reflect the narrow uncertainty band around the official 26–32°C guidance, with resolution hinging on the next day’s verified maximum at the Observatory headquarters.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,497Data di fine
10 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Northeast monsoon influence and stable synoptic conditions are the main drivers positioning 31°C as the leading outcome (47% implied probability) for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum temperature on September 10.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s 9 September forecast explicitly calls for a 26–32°C range under east to northeast winds of force 4 (occasionally 5 offshore), with sunny periods, a few showers mainly in the morning and evening, and low significant rainfall probability. This aligns with typical early-September climatology under monsoon flow, which suppresses extreme heat while allowing daytime highs in the low 30s when skies clear. Recent observations reinforce this: maximums on 9 September reached 32–33°C at some stations before the monsoon strengthened, with current readings around 29–30°C and sea surface temperatures near 27°C. Model consensus and regional forecasts show limited day-to-day variability, keeping 30–32°C outcomes dominant in trader pricing while assigning minimal probability to outliers below 29°C or above 33°C. The market-implied odds reflect the narrow uncertainty band around the official 26–32°C guidance, with resolution hinging on the next day’s verified maximum at the Observatory headquarters.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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