Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s decisive victory in the March 17 Democratic primary, fueled by Gov. JB Pritzker’s financial and political backing, has entrenched her as the frontrunner for the open Illinois U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, propelling trader consensus to price Democrats at 92.5% implied probability. Illinois’ deep-blue partisan lean—evident in Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s 2022 win by 16 points and no Republican Senate victory since 2010—combined with the GOP nominee, former state party chair Don Tracy’s limited name recognition, drives this commanding position amid scant early general election polling. Potential disruptions include a major Stratton scandal, robust Republican national midterm momentum, or Tracy’s unexpected fundraising surge ahead of November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$21,279 Vol.
$21,279 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratico
93%
Repubblicano
7%
$21,279 Vol.
$21,279 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratico
$10,628 Vol.
93%
Repubblicano
$10,651 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s decisive victory in the March 17 Democratic primary, fueled by Gov. JB Pritzker’s financial and political backing, has entrenched her as the frontrunner for the open Illinois U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, propelling trader consensus to price Democrats at 92.5% implied probability. Illinois’ deep-blue partisan lean—evident in Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s 2022 win by 16 points and no Republican Senate victory since 2010—combined with the GOP nominee, former state party chair Don Tracy’s limited name recognition, drives this commanding position amid scant early general election polling. Potential disruptions include a major Stratton scandal, robust Republican national midterm momentum, or Tracy’s unexpected fundraising surge ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$21,279Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s decisive victory in the March 17 Democratic primary, fueled by Gov. JB Pritzker’s financial and political backing, has entrenched her as the frontrunner for the open Illinois U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, propelling trader consensus to price Democrats at 92.5% implied probability. Illinois’ deep-blue partisan lean—evident in Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s 2022 win by 16 points and no Republican Senate victory since 2010—combined with the GOP nominee, former state party chair Don Tracy’s limited name recognition, drives this commanding position amid scant early general election polling. Potential disruptions include a major Stratton scandal, robust Republican national midterm momentum, or Tracy’s unexpected fundraising surge ahead of November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$21,279Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s decisive victory in the March 17 Democratic primary, fueled by Gov. JB Pritzker’s financial and political backing, has entrenched her as the frontrunner for the open Illinois U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, propelling trader consensus to price Democrats at 92.5% implied probability. Illinois’ deep-blue partisan lean—evident in Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s 2022 win by 16 points and no Republican Senate victory since 2010—combined with the GOP nominee, former state party chair Don Tracy’s limited name recognition, drives this commanding position amid scant early general election polling. Potential disruptions include a major Stratton scandal, robust Republican national midterm momentum, or Tracy’s unexpected fundraising surge ahead of November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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