Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley seeks a fourth term in Oregon's 2026 Senate election against Republican state Senator David Brock Smith, who prevailed in a fragmented May primary. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the state's consistent partisan lean—evident in Kamala Harris's 14-point 2024 margin—and Merkley's strong primary showing alongside limited Republican infrastructure. This consensus underpins trader pricing near 97 percent for a Democratic outcome. A decisive shift in national conditions, an unforeseen candidate event, or turnout dynamics atypical for the state could narrow the margin, though structural and historical factors currently limit such prospects.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
NUOVO
2 nov 2026
Democrat
97%
Republican
2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
2 nov 2026
Democrat
$3,648 Vol.
97%
Republican
$3,076 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley seeks a fourth term in Oregon's 2026 Senate election against Republican state Senator David Brock Smith, who prevailed in a fragmented May primary. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the state's consistent partisan lean—evident in Kamala Harris's 14-point 2024 margin—and Merkley's strong primary showing alongside limited Republican infrastructure. This consensus underpins trader pricing near 97 percent for a Democratic outcome. A decisive shift in national conditions, an unforeseen candidate event, or turnout dynamics atypical for the state could narrow the margin, though structural and historical factors currently limit such prospects.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$6,724Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley seeks a fourth term in Oregon's 2026 Senate election against Republican state Senator David Brock Smith, who prevailed in a fragmented May primary. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the state's consistent partisan lean—evident in Kamala Harris's 14-point 2024 margin—and Merkley's strong primary showing alongside limited Republican infrastructure. This consensus underpins trader pricing near 97 percent for a Democratic outcome. A decisive shift in national conditions, an unforeseen candidate event, or turnout dynamics atypical for the state could narrow the margin, though structural and historical factors currently limit such prospects.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$6,724Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley seeks a fourth term in Oregon's 2026 Senate election against Republican state Senator David Brock Smith, who prevailed in a fragmented May primary. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the state's consistent partisan lean—evident in Kamala Harris's 14-point 2024 margin—and Merkley's strong primary showing alongside limited Republican infrastructure. This consensus underpins trader pricing near 97 percent for a Democratic outcome. A decisive shift in national conditions, an unforeseen candidate event, or turnout dynamics atypical for the state could narrow the margin, though structural and historical factors currently limit such prospects.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti