Sen. Markwayne Mullin's March 2026 resignation to serve as DHS Secretary under President Trump opened Oklahoma's Class 2 Senate seat, with Gov. Kevin Stitt appointing interim Sen. Alan Armstrong—who is ineligible to run—prompting a crowded Republican primary featuring U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern as the frontrunner, backed by Trump, multiple senators, and Club for Growth, and leading early polls like Pulse Decision Science (52%). Democrats' primary field, including low-fundraising candidates like N'Kiyla Thomas and Ervin Yen, lacks competitive edge. Oklahoma's R+20 partisan lean, GOP historical margins exceeding 30 points (e.g., Mullin's 2022 win), and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin the 93% trader consensus for a Republican victory ahead of the June 16 primary. Upsets could arise from GOP primary turmoil yielding a weakened nominee, scandals, or national wave dynamics, though structural barriers remain high.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$11,717 Vol.
$11,717 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano
93%
Democratico
5%
$11,717 Vol.
$11,717 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano
$6,877 Vol.
93%
Democratico
$4,840 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Sen. Markwayne Mullin's March 2026 resignation to serve as DHS Secretary under President Trump opened Oklahoma's Class 2 Senate seat, with Gov. Kevin Stitt appointing interim Sen. Alan Armstrong—who is ineligible to run—prompting a crowded Republican primary featuring U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern as the frontrunner, backed by Trump, multiple senators, and Club for Growth, and leading early polls like Pulse Decision Science (52%). Democrats' primary field, including low-fundraising candidates like N'Kiyla Thomas and Ervin Yen, lacks competitive edge. Oklahoma's R+20 partisan lean, GOP historical margins exceeding 30 points (e.g., Mullin's 2022 win), and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin the 93% trader consensus for a Republican victory ahead of the June 16 primary. Upsets could arise from GOP primary turmoil yielding a weakened nominee, scandals, or national wave dynamics, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$11,717Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Sen. Markwayne Mullin's March 2026 resignation to serve as DHS Secretary under President Trump opened Oklahoma's Class 2 Senate seat, with Gov. Kevin Stitt appointing interim Sen. Alan Armstrong—who is ineligible to run—prompting a crowded Republican primary featuring U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern as the frontrunner, backed by Trump, multiple senators, and Club for Growth, and leading early polls like Pulse Decision Science (52%). Democrats' primary field, including low-fundraising candidates like N'Kiyla Thomas and Ervin Yen, lacks competitive edge. Oklahoma's R+20 partisan lean, GOP historical margins exceeding 30 points (e.g., Mullin's 2022 win), and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin the 93% trader consensus for a Republican victory ahead of the June 16 primary. Upsets could arise from GOP primary turmoil yielding a weakened nominee, scandals, or national wave dynamics, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$11,717Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Sen. Markwayne Mullin's March 2026 resignation to serve as DHS Secretary under President Trump opened Oklahoma's Class 2 Senate seat, with Gov. Kevin Stitt appointing interim Sen. Alan Armstrong—who is ineligible to run—prompting a crowded Republican primary featuring U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern as the frontrunner, backed by Trump, multiple senators, and Club for Growth, and leading early polls like Pulse Decision Science (52%). Democrats' primary field, including low-fundraising candidates like N'Kiyla Thomas and Ervin Yen, lacks competitive edge. Oklahoma's R+20 partisan lean, GOP historical margins exceeding 30 points (e.g., Mullin's 2022 win), and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin the 93% trader consensus for a Republican victory ahead of the June 16 primary. Upsets could arise from GOP primary turmoil yielding a weakened nominee, scandals, or national wave dynamics, though structural barriers remain high.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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