Lisa Murkowski remains a registered Republican senator with her next election in 2028, and recent Senate records confirm she continues to caucus and vote within the GOP on the majority of major legislation and nominations. Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability to her staying through December 2026 because she has issued no announcement of a switch, maintained institutional Senate leverage as a Republican, and shown a consistent pattern of independence inside the party rather than formal departure despite periodic tensions over issues such as Iran policy and election measures. Bipartisan votes and public frustration with specific administration priorities have not produced any structural break or registration change in the past several months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato9% probabilità
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31 dic 2026
9% probabilità
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31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lisa Murkowski remains a registered Republican senator with her next election in 2028, and recent Senate records confirm she continues to caucus and vote within the GOP on the majority of major legislation and nominations. Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability to her staying through December 2026 because she has issued no announcement of a switch, maintained institutional Senate leverage as a Republican, and shown a consistent pattern of independence inside the party rather than formal departure despite periodic tensions over issues such as Iran policy and election measures. Bipartisan votes and public frustration with specific administration priorities have not produced any structural break or registration change in the past several months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$4,899Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lisa Murkowski remains a registered Republican senator with her next election in 2028, and recent Senate records confirm she continues to caucus and vote within the GOP on the majority of major legislation and nominations. Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability to her staying through December 2026 because she has issued no announcement of a switch, maintained institutional Senate leverage as a Republican, and shown a consistent pattern of independence inside the party rather than formal departure despite periodic tensions over issues such as Iran policy and election measures. Bipartisan votes and public frustration with specific administration priorities have not produced any structural break or registration change in the past several months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,899Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Lisa Murkowski remains a registered Republican senator with her next election in 2028, and recent Senate records confirm she continues to caucus and vote within the GOP on the majority of major legislation and nominations. Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability to her staying through December 2026 because she has issued no announcement of a switch, maintained institutional Senate leverage as a Republican, and shown a consistent pattern of independence inside the party rather than formal departure despite periodic tensions over issues such as Iran policy and election measures. Bipartisan votes and public frustration with specific administration priorities have not produced any structural break or registration change in the past several months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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