**Persistent subtropical conditions and model consensus have driven overwhelming market confidence in a 28°C minimum.** Forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models consistently pointed to a daily minimum near 28°C on September 22, 2026, supported by steady easterly flow, humidity levels remaining above 70%, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with only scattered showers. Recent hourly observations showed overnight lows holding in the 26–27°C range amid stable conditions, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiational cooling expected. This aligns with late-September climatology, where minima rarely fall below 26°C absent a stronger monsoon surge. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the 28°C outcome include an unexpected shift to clearer skies allowing greater radiational cooling or a late-arriving surge of cooler air, though neither was indicated in the final model runs or observations leading into the day. Trader positioning reflects this strong scientific consensus, with the 99.6% implied probability on 28°C underscoring the limited uncertainty in the data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 22 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 22 settembre?
28°C 99.6%
24°C 1.0%
22°C o inferiore <1%
23°C <1%
$43,781 Vol.
$43,781 Vol.
22 set 2026
22°C o inferiore
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C o superiore
<1%
28°C 99.6%
24°C 1.0%
22°C o inferiore <1%
23°C <1%
$43,781 Vol.
$43,781 Vol.
22 set 2026
22°C o inferiore
$1,297 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$940 Vol.
1%
25°C
$3,426 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$7,651 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$6,625 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$19,923 Vol.
100%
29°C
$121 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,315 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
32°C o superiore
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent subtropical conditions and model consensus have driven overwhelming market confidence in a 28°C minimum.**
Forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models consistently pointed to a daily minimum near 28°C on September 22, 2026, supported by steady easterly flow, humidity levels remaining above 70%, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with only scattered showers. Recent hourly observations showed overnight lows holding in the 26–27°C range amid stable conditions, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiational cooling expected. This aligns with late-September climatology, where minima rarely fall below 26°C absent a stronger monsoon surge.
Scenarios that could realistically challenge the 28°C outcome include an unexpected shift to clearer skies allowing greater radiational cooling or a late-arriving surge of cooler air, though neither was indicated in the final model runs or observations leading into the day. Trader positioning reflects this strong scientific consensus, with the 99.6% implied probability on 28°C underscoring the limited uncertainty in the data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$43,781Data di fine
22 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent subtropical conditions and model consensus have driven overwhelming market confidence in a 28°C minimum.**
Forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models consistently pointed to a daily minimum near 28°C on September 22, 2026, supported by steady easterly flow, humidity levels remaining above 70%, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with only scattered showers. Recent hourly observations showed overnight lows holding in the 26–27°C range amid stable conditions, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiational cooling expected. This aligns with late-September climatology, where minima rarely fall below 26°C absent a stronger monsoon surge.
Scenarios that could realistically challenge the 28°C outcome include an unexpected shift to clearer skies allowing greater radiational cooling or a late-arriving surge of cooler air, though neither was indicated in the final model runs or observations leading into the day. Trader positioning reflects this strong scientific consensus, with the 99.6% implied probability on 28°C underscoring the limited uncertainty in the data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$43,781Data di fine
22 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent subtropical conditions and model consensus have driven overwhelming market confidence in a 28°C minimum.** Forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models consistently pointed to a daily minimum near 28°C on September 22, 2026, supported by steady easterly flow, humidity levels remaining above 70%, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with only scattered showers. Recent hourly observations showed overnight lows holding in the 26–27°C range amid stable conditions, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiational cooling expected. This aligns with late-September climatology, where minima rarely fall below 26°C absent a stronger monsoon surge. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the 28°C outcome include an unexpected shift to clearer skies allowing greater radiational cooling or a late-arriving surge of cooler air, though neither was indicated in the final model runs or observations leading into the day. Trader positioning reflects this strong scientific consensus, with the 99.6% implied probability on 28°C underscoring the limited uncertainty in the data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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