Divergence among short-range numerical weather prediction models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–25°C minima for Tokyo on September 3. Current forecasts show a transitional pattern with southerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and a 40–80% chance of showers or thunderstorms that night, which can suppress radiative cooling and compress the diurnal range toward 22–25°C. Historical early-September baselines feature overnight lows near 23–24°C under similar humidity levels above 80%, but model spreads on exact frontal timing and precipitation intensity widen uncertainty between 21°C and 26°C outcomes. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen trader consensus as the event nears resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Tokyo il 3 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Tokyo il 3 settembre?
24°C 32%
25°C 31%
31°C or higher 24%
23°C 16%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 set 2026
21°C or below
11%
22°C
13%
23°C
16%
24°C
32%
25°C
31%
26°C
15%
27°C
13%
28°C
14%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
24%
24°C 32%
25°C 31%
31°C or higher 24%
23°C 16%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 set 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
11%
22°C
$0 Vol.
13%
23°C
$0 Vol.
16%
24°C
$0 Vol.
32%
25°C
$0 Vol.
31%
26°C
$0 Vol.
15%
27°C
$0 Vol.
13%
28°C
$0 Vol.
14%
29°C
$5 Vol.
1%
30°C
$5 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Divergence among short-range numerical weather prediction models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–25°C minima for Tokyo on September 3. Current forecasts show a transitional pattern with southerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and a 40–80% chance of showers or thunderstorms that night, which can suppress radiative cooling and compress the diurnal range toward 22–25°C. Historical early-September baselines feature overnight lows near 23–24°C under similar humidity levels above 80%, but model spreads on exact frontal timing and precipitation intensity widen uncertainty between 21°C and 26°C outcomes. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen trader consensus as the event nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$15Data di fine
3 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Divergence among short-range numerical weather prediction models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–25°C minima for Tokyo on September 3. Current forecasts show a transitional pattern with southerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and a 40–80% chance of showers or thunderstorms that night, which can suppress radiative cooling and compress the diurnal range toward 22–25°C. Historical early-September baselines feature overnight lows near 23–24°C under similar humidity levels above 80%, but model spreads on exact frontal timing and precipitation intensity widen uncertainty between 21°C and 26°C outcomes. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen trader consensus as the event nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15Data di fine
3 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Divergence among short-range numerical weather prediction models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–25°C minima for Tokyo on September 3. Current forecasts show a transitional pattern with southerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and a 40–80% chance of showers or thunderstorms that night, which can suppress radiative cooling and compress the diurnal range toward 22–25°C. Historical early-September baselines feature overnight lows near 23–24°C under similar humidity levels above 80%, but model spreads on exact frontal timing and precipitation intensity widen uncertainty between 21°C and 26°C outcomes. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen trader consensus as the event nears resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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