With term-limited Democratic incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham stepping down, New Mexico's open 2026 gubernatorial race favors Democrats at 86% implied probability, reflecting the state's Democratic trifecta, consistent victories in recent governor contests since 2002, and a strong primary frontrunner in former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland. Haaland leads Bernalillo County DA Sam Bregman decisively in February polls (46-56% to 25-26%) and latest fundraising through mid-April ($11 million total vs. under $4 million), backed by all three U.S. House members and Sen. Ben Ray Luján. Republicans face a fragmented primary field including Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, ex-Human Services Secretary Duke Rodriguez, and businessman Doug Turner, with low fundraising around $500,000 each. The June 2 primary looms as the next key event.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$20,099 Vol.
$20,099 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratico
87%
Repubblicano
11%
$20,099 Vol.
$20,099 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratico
$14,568 Vol.
87%
Repubblicano
$5,532 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.With term-limited Democratic incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham stepping down, New Mexico's open 2026 gubernatorial race favors Democrats at 86% implied probability, reflecting the state's Democratic trifecta, consistent victories in recent governor contests since 2002, and a strong primary frontrunner in former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland. Haaland leads Bernalillo County DA Sam Bregman decisively in February polls (46-56% to 25-26%) and latest fundraising through mid-April ($11 million total vs. under $4 million), backed by all three U.S. House members and Sen. Ben Ray Luján. Republicans face a fragmented primary field including Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, ex-Human Services Secretary Duke Rodriguez, and businessman Doug Turner, with low fundraising around $500,000 each. The June 2 primary looms as the next key event.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ET
Volume
$20,099Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.With term-limited Democratic incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham stepping down, New Mexico's open 2026 gubernatorial race favors Democrats at 86% implied probability, reflecting the state's Democratic trifecta, consistent victories in recent governor contests since 2002, and a strong primary frontrunner in former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland. Haaland leads Bernalillo County DA Sam Bregman decisively in February polls (46-56% to 25-26%) and latest fundraising through mid-April ($11 million total vs. under $4 million), backed by all three U.S. House members and Sen. Ben Ray Luján. Republicans face a fragmented primary field including Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, ex-Human Services Secretary Duke Rodriguez, and businessman Doug Turner, with low fundraising around $500,000 each. The June 2 primary looms as the next key event.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$20,099Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With term-limited Democratic incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham stepping down, New Mexico's open 2026 gubernatorial race favors Democrats at 86% implied probability, reflecting the state's Democratic trifecta, consistent victories in recent governor contests since 2002, and a strong primary frontrunner in former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland. Haaland leads Bernalillo County DA Sam Bregman decisively in February polls (46-56% to 25-26%) and latest fundraising through mid-April ($11 million total vs. under $4 million), backed by all three U.S. House members and Sen. Ben Ray Luján. Republicans face a fragmented primary field including Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, ex-Human Services Secretary Duke Rodriguez, and businessman Doug Turner, with low fundraising around $500,000 each. The June 2 primary looms as the next key event.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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