Strava's confidential S-1 filing in early 2026, following its $2.2 billion May 2025 funding round, has anchored trader consensus around a 2B–3B closing market cap, reflected in the 33.5% implied probability for that bucket. Recent user growth past 180 million athletes, acquisition of training platforms like Runna, and progress toward $500 million ARR support modest uplift from the private valuation, while the June 2026 API restrictions signal data discipline ahead of investor scrutiny. Differentiation across outcomes hinges on subscription conversion rates, profitability proof in public filings, broader fitness-app demand, and equity market appetite for consumer tech listings—factors that could compress valuation below $2B or push it toward 4B–5B depending on the final pricing and timing. The low 9% chance of no IPO before 2028 underscores the advanced preparation already underway.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCapitalizzazione di mercato chiusura IPO Strava
Capitalizzazione di mercato chiusura IPO Strava
2B–3B 33%
<2B 20%
4B–5B 19%
No IPO before 2028 9%
$86,373 Vol.
$86,373 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<2B
20%
2B–3B
33%
3B–4B
7%
4B–5B
19%
5B–7B
5%
7B–10B
3%
10B–15B
6%
15B+
3%
No IPO before 2028
9%
2B–3B 33%
<2B 20%
4B–5B 19%
No IPO before 2028 9%
$86,373 Vol.
$86,373 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<2B
$812 Vol.
20%
2B–3B
$54,169 Vol.
33%
3B–4B
$25,125 Vol.
7%
4B–5B
$1,113 Vol.
19%
5B–7B
$847 Vol.
5%
7B–10B
$944 Vol.
3%
10B–15B
$1,559 Vol.
6%
15B+
$1,240 Vol.
3%
No IPO before 2028
$563 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Strava's confidential S-1 filing in early 2026, following its $2.2 billion May 2025 funding round, has anchored trader consensus around a 2B–3B closing market cap, reflected in the 33.5% implied probability for that bucket. Recent user growth past 180 million athletes, acquisition of training platforms like Runna, and progress toward $500 million ARR support modest uplift from the private valuation, while the June 2026 API restrictions signal data discipline ahead of investor scrutiny. Differentiation across outcomes hinges on subscription conversion rates, profitability proof in public filings, broader fitness-app demand, and equity market appetite for consumer tech listings—factors that could compress valuation below $2B or push it toward 4B–5B depending on the final pricing and timing. The low 9% chance of no IPO before 2028 underscores the advanced preparation already underway.
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercato aperto: Jan 14, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
Volume
$86,373Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Strava's confidential S-1 filing in early 2026, following its $2.2 billion May 2025 funding round, has anchored trader consensus around a 2B–3B closing market cap, reflected in the 33.5% implied probability for that bucket. Recent user growth past 180 million athletes, acquisition of training platforms like Runna, and progress toward $500 million ARR support modest uplift from the private valuation, while the June 2026 API restrictions signal data discipline ahead of investor scrutiny. Differentiation across outcomes hinges on subscription conversion rates, profitability proof in public filings, broader fitness-app demand, and equity market appetite for consumer tech listings—factors that could compress valuation below $2B or push it toward 4B–5B depending on the final pricing and timing. The low 9% chance of no IPO before 2028 underscores the advanced preparation already underway.
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$86,373Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Strava's confidential S-1 filing in early 2026, following its $2.2 billion May 2025 funding round, has anchored trader consensus around a 2B–3B closing market cap, reflected in the 33.5% implied probability for that bucket. Recent user growth past 180 million athletes, acquisition of training platforms like Runna, and progress toward $500 million ARR support modest uplift from the private valuation, while the June 2026 API restrictions signal data discipline ahead of investor scrutiny. Differentiation across outcomes hinges on subscription conversion rates, profitability proof in public filings, broader fitness-app demand, and equity market appetite for consumer tech listings—factors that could compress valuation below $2B or push it toward 4B–5B depending on the final pricing and timing. The low 9% chance of no IPO before 2028 underscores the advanced preparation already underway.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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