The Department of Justice's announcement on April 24, 2026, to end its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation overruns has driven Polymarket's 100% implied probability for "Yes," reflecting trader consensus that President Trump fulfilled the precondition before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation. This pivotal move, led by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, resolved a key impasse created by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who conditioned his support on dropping the investigation following Warsh's April 21 confirmation hearing. With Powell's term expiring May 15, markets now price a smoother leadership transition, potentially accelerating expectations for policy shifts under Warsh amid cooling inflation and steady Fed funds rates around 4.75-5.00%. Tail risks include procedural reversals or Tillis reneging, though highly improbable given the probe's closure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato>99% probabilità
$12,882 Vol.
$12,882 Vol.
31 ott 2026
>99% probabilità
$12,882 Vol.
$12,882 Vol.
31 ott 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Department of Justice's announcement on April 24, 2026, to end its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation overruns has driven Polymarket's 100% implied probability for "Yes," reflecting trader consensus that President Trump fulfilled the precondition before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation. This pivotal move, led by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, resolved a key impasse created by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who conditioned his support on dropping the investigation following Warsh's April 21 confirmation hearing. With Powell's term expiring May 15, markets now price a smoother leadership transition, potentially accelerating expectations for policy shifts under Warsh amid cooling inflation and steady Fed funds rates around 4.75-5.00%. Tail risks include procedural reversals or Tillis reneging, though highly improbable given the probe's closure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$12,882Data di fine
31 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Department of Justice's announcement on April 24, 2026, to end its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation overruns has driven Polymarket's 100% implied probability for "Yes," reflecting trader consensus that President Trump fulfilled the precondition before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation. This pivotal move, led by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, resolved a key impasse created by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who conditioned his support on dropping the investigation following Warsh's April 21 confirmation hearing. With Powell's term expiring May 15, markets now price a smoother leadership transition, potentially accelerating expectations for policy shifts under Warsh amid cooling inflation and steady Fed funds rates around 4.75-5.00%. Tail risks include procedural reversals or Tillis reneging, though highly improbable given the probe's closure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$12,882Data di fine
31 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
The Department of Justice's announcement on April 24, 2026, to end its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovation overruns has driven Polymarket's 100% implied probability for "Yes," reflecting trader consensus that President Trump fulfilled the precondition before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation. This pivotal move, led by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, resolved a key impasse created by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who conditioned his support on dropping the investigation following Warsh's April 21 confirmation hearing. With Powell's term expiring May 15, markets now price a smoother leadership transition, potentially accelerating expectations for policy shifts under Warsh amid cooling inflation and steady Fed funds rates around 4.75-5.00%. Tail risks include procedural reversals or Tillis reneging, though highly improbable given the probe's closure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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