**Trader consensus favors 25–49 US tornadoes in September 2026 (62% implied probability) over 50–74 (53.5%), reflecting below-average activity through mid-month and limited remaining potential.** As of September 13, preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts stood at 28, with roughly 10 confirmed paths from early-September events including the September 2–3 Great Lakes outbreak and isolated EF1–EF0 touchdowns in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Nebraska. September climatology averages ~66 tornadoes, concentrated early in the month and often tied to tropical cyclone remnants; with no major landfalls and current SPC outlooks showing only marginal severe risks through late September, the final 10 days are unlikely to add enough reports to reach the higher bin. Model consensus and historical analogs support subdued late-month activity absent a strong steering pattern or Gulf moisture surge, though any unexpected tropical interaction or persistent frontal activity could shift totals upward before final NWS surveys close the count.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTornado statunitensi nel settembre 2026
Tornado statunitensi nel settembre 2026
25 - 49 62%
50 - 74 55%
75 - 124 15%
Meno di 25 3.2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 ott 2026
Meno di 25
3%
25 - 49
62%
50 - 74
55%
75 - 124
15%
125 o più
3%
25 - 49 62%
50 - 74 55%
75 - 124 15%
Meno di 25 3.2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
14 ott 2026
Meno di 25
$50 Vol.
3%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
62%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
55%
75 - 124
$22 Vol.
15%
125 o più
$45 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus favors 25–49 US tornadoes in September 2026 (62% implied probability) over 50–74 (53.5%), reflecting below-average activity through mid-month and limited remaining potential.** As of September 13, preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts stood at 28, with roughly 10 confirmed paths from early-September events including the September 2–3 Great Lakes outbreak and isolated EF1–EF0 touchdowns in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Nebraska. September climatology averages ~66 tornadoes, concentrated early in the month and often tied to tropical cyclone remnants; with no major landfalls and current SPC outlooks showing only marginal severe risks through late September, the final 10 days are unlikely to add enough reports to reach the higher bin. Model consensus and historical analogs support subdued late-month activity absent a strong steering pattern or Gulf moisture surge, though any unexpected tropical interaction or persistent frontal activity could shift totals upward before final NWS surveys close the count.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercato aperto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$118Data di fine
14 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus favors 25–49 US tornadoes in September 2026 (62% implied probability) over 50–74 (53.5%), reflecting below-average activity through mid-month and limited remaining potential.** As of September 13, preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts stood at 28, with roughly 10 confirmed paths from early-September events including the September 2–3 Great Lakes outbreak and isolated EF1–EF0 touchdowns in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Nebraska. September climatology averages ~66 tornadoes, concentrated early in the month and often tied to tropical cyclone remnants; with no major landfalls and current SPC outlooks showing only marginal severe risks through late September, the final 10 days are unlikely to add enough reports to reach the higher bin. Model consensus and historical analogs support subdued late-month activity absent a strong steering pattern or Gulf moisture surge, though any unexpected tropical interaction or persistent frontal activity could shift totals upward before final NWS surveys close the count.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$118Data di fine
14 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus favors 25–49 US tornadoes in September 2026 (62% implied probability) over 50–74 (53.5%), reflecting below-average activity through mid-month and limited remaining potential.** As of September 13, preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts stood at 28, with roughly 10 confirmed paths from early-September events including the September 2–3 Great Lakes outbreak and isolated EF1–EF0 touchdowns in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Nebraska. September climatology averages ~66 tornadoes, concentrated early in the month and often tied to tropical cyclone remnants; with no major landfalls and current SPC outlooks showing only marginal severe risks through late September, the final 10 days are unlikely to add enough reports to reach the higher bin. Model consensus and historical analogs support subdued late-month activity absent a strong steering pattern or Gulf moisture surge, though any unexpected tropical interaction or persistent frontal activity could shift totals upward before final NWS surveys close the count.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti