Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 58% probability of no US-Cuba military clash in 2026, reflecting heightened rhetorical tensions from President Trump's March statements labeling "Cuba is next" after Iran successes, alongside a US oil tanker blockade since February and Cuban vows of "impregnable resistance" from President Díaz-Canel as recently as April 13. However, the absence of direct military provocations—despite a February speedboat incident involving armed exiles killed by Cuban border guards, now under FBI probe—combined with confirmed bilateral talks, Cuba's economic roadmap offers, and prisoner releases as goodwill gestures, sustains diplomatic off-ramps. US military leaders denied invasion preparations in March, prioritizing non-kinetic pressures amid Russia-China entanglements, leaving the outcome closely contested with escalation risks tied to negotiation breakdowns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$85,204 Vol.
$85,204 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$85,204 Vol.
$85,204 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 58% probability of no US-Cuba military clash in 2026, reflecting heightened rhetorical tensions from President Trump's March statements labeling "Cuba is next" after Iran successes, alongside a US oil tanker blockade since February and Cuban vows of "impregnable resistance" from President Díaz-Canel as recently as April 13. However, the absence of direct military provocations—despite a February speedboat incident involving armed exiles killed by Cuban border guards, now under FBI probe—combined with confirmed bilateral talks, Cuba's economic roadmap offers, and prisoner releases as goodwill gestures, sustains diplomatic off-ramps. US military leaders denied invasion preparations in March, prioritizing non-kinetic pressures amid Russia-China entanglements, leaving the outcome closely contested with escalation risks tied to negotiation breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$85,204Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 58% probability of no US-Cuba military clash in 2026, reflecting heightened rhetorical tensions from President Trump's March statements labeling "Cuba is next" after Iran successes, alongside a US oil tanker blockade since February and Cuban vows of "impregnable resistance" from President Díaz-Canel as recently as April 13. However, the absence of direct military provocations—despite a February speedboat incident involving armed exiles killed by Cuban border guards, now under FBI probe—combined with confirmed bilateral talks, Cuba's economic roadmap offers, and prisoner releases as goodwill gestures, sustains diplomatic off-ramps. US military leaders denied invasion preparations in March, prioritizing non-kinetic pressures amid Russia-China entanglements, leaving the outcome closely contested with escalation risks tied to negotiation breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$85,449Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 58% probability of no US-Cuba military clash in 2026, reflecting heightened rhetorical tensions from President Trump's March statements labeling "Cuba is next" after Iran successes, alongside a US oil tanker blockade since February and Cuban vows of "impregnable resistance" from President Díaz-Canel as recently as April 13. However, the absence of direct military provocations—despite a February speedboat incident involving armed exiles killed by Cuban border guards, now under FBI probe—combined with confirmed bilateral talks, Cuba's economic roadmap offers, and prisoner releases as goodwill gestures, sustains diplomatic off-ramps. US military leaders denied invasion preparations in March, prioritizing non-kinetic pressures amid Russia-China entanglements, leaving the outcome closely contested with escalation risks tied to negotiation breakdowns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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