Anthropic commands a 65% implied probability on Polymarket for fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 variants dominating the Arena.ai Text Leaderboard and specialized benchmarks like Image-to-WebDev as of mid-April 2026. Recent leaderboard updates confirm Anthropic's sustained lead in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (now #3 overall) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High (#6), following a flurry of April releases including Grok-4.20 from xAI. Traders price in Anthropic's momentum amid rumors of unreleased "Mythos" capabilities, but volatility looms from anticipated launches like Claude 4.7 or GPT-5.5 before resolution on LMSYS-style Elo rankings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il miglior modello di IA alla fine di giugno?
Quale azienda ha il miglior modello di IA alla fine di giugno?
Anthropic 65.0%
Google 19%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.9%
$3,425,026 Vol.
$3,425,026 Vol.

Anthropic
65%

19%

OpenAI
9%

xAI
4%

Meta
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Amazon
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 65.0%
Google 19%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.9%
$3,425,026 Vol.
$3,425,026 Vol.

Anthropic
65%

19%

OpenAI
9%

xAI
4%

Meta
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Amazon
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

ByteDance
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic commands a 65% implied probability on Polymarket for fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 variants dominating the Arena.ai Text Leaderboard and specialized benchmarks like Image-to-WebDev as of mid-April 2026. Recent leaderboard updates confirm Anthropic's sustained lead in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (now #3 overall) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High (#6), following a flurry of April releases including Grok-4.20 from xAI. Traders price in Anthropic's momentum amid rumors of unreleased "Mythos" capabilities, but volatility looms from anticipated launches like Claude 4.7 or GPT-5.5 before resolution on LMSYS-style Elo rankings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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