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icon for Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?
Politica·James Comey

Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?

icon for Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?
Politica·James Comey

Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?

$405,750 Vol.

Polymarket

$405,750 Vol.

Polymarket

Anthony Fauci

$160,418 Vol.

10%

John Brennan

$22,244 Vol.

21%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$23,157 Vol.

10%

Adam Schiff

$16,570 Vol.

3%

Barack Obama

$29,276 Vol.

2%

James Comey

$10,272 Vol.

9%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,328 Vol.

24%

James Clapper

$6,774 Vol.

12%

Letitia James

$3,047 Vol.

10%

Hillary Clinton

$25,978 Vol.

3%

Bill Clinton

$2,726 Vol.

1%

Loretta Lynch

$2,411 Vol.

10%

Susan Rice

$304 Vol.

9%

Candace Owens

$268 Vol.

7%

Gavin Newsom

$39,300 Vol.

3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$1,936 Vol.

5%

John Kerry

$503 Vol.

2%

Pam Bondi

$2,179 Vol.

2%

Tom Homan

$41,056 Vol.

4%

Kash Patel

$598 Vol.

2%

Brandon Johnson

$3,284 Vol.

13%

Lisa Cook

$3,845 Vol.

3%

Lee Jun-seok

$794 Vol.

11%

Joe Biden

$7,481 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on a handful of listed figures facing active or potential legal exposure, with John Brennan priced highest around 30% and Mahmoud Khalil near 25%. Ongoing congressional scrutiny of former intelligence officials, Senate hearings on COVID-19 origins involving Anthony Fauci, and immigration enforcement actions targeting activists shape positioning. Broader ICE operations and federal fraud cases illustrate continued prosecutorial activity, yet structural factors such as indictment thresholds, venue requirements, and procedural timelines limit near-term resolutions. No major arrests of listed individuals have occurred in recent months, keeping implied probabilities modest through the December 31, 2026 cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$405,750
Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on a handful of listed figures facing active or potential legal exposure, with John Brennan priced highest around 30% and Mahmoud Khalil near 25%. Ongoing congressional scrutiny of former intelligence officials, Senate hearings on COVID-19 origins involving Anthony Fauci, and immigration enforcement actions targeting activists shape positioning. Broader ICE operations and federal fraud cases illustrate continued prosecutorial activity, yet structural factors such as indictment thresholds, venue requirements, and procedural timelines limit near-term resolutions. No major arrests of listed individuals have occurred in recent months, keeping implied probabilities modest through the December 31, 2026 cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$405,750
Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...

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Domande frequenti

"Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 24 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Mahmoud Khalil" a 24%, seguito da "John Brennan" a 21%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 24¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 24% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?" ha generato $405.8K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 30, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?", esplora i 24 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?" è "Mahmoud Khalil" a 24%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 24% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "John Brennan" a 21%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.