The UAE’s May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+, driven by quota disputes, production capacity ambitions, and disruptions from the Iran conflict including Strait of Hormuz restrictions, has not triggered confirmed follow-on departures. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing withdrawal over output shares and Venezuela considering an exit have remained unconfirmed or officially denied through early September, with the group now operating at 11 members. These factors, alongside ongoing quota negotiations and limited immediate incentives for further sovereign shifts amid shared supply constraints, support trader consensus favoring no additional exits before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
39% probabilità
$174,404 Vol.
$174,404 Vol.
31 dic 2026
39% probabilità
$174,404 Vol.
$174,404 Vol.
31 dic 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+, driven by quota disputes, production capacity ambitions, and disruptions from the Iran conflict including Strait of Hormuz restrictions, has not triggered confirmed follow-on departures. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing withdrawal over output shares and Venezuela considering an exit have remained unconfirmed or officially denied through early September, with the group now operating at 11 members. These factors, alongside ongoing quota negotiations and limited immediate incentives for further sovereign shifts amid shared supply constraints, support trader consensus favoring no additional exits before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$174,404Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+, driven by quota disputes, production capacity ambitions, and disruptions from the Iran conflict including Strait of Hormuz restrictions, has not triggered confirmed follow-on departures. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing withdrawal over output shares and Venezuela considering an exit have remained unconfirmed or officially denied through early September, with the group now operating at 11 members. These factors, alongside ongoing quota negotiations and limited immediate incentives for further sovereign shifts amid shared supply constraints, support trader consensus favoring no additional exits before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$174,404Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The UAE’s May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+, driven by quota disputes, production capacity ambitions, and disruptions from the Iran conflict including Strait of Hormuz restrictions, has not triggered confirmed follow-on departures. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing withdrawal over output shares and Venezuela considering an exit have remained unconfirmed or officially denied through early September, with the group now operating at 11 members. These factors, alongside ongoing quota negotiations and limited immediate incentives for further sovereign shifts amid shared supply constraints, support trader consensus favoring no additional exits before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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