Apple’s long-established annual iPhone release cycle, with new models typically announced each September, drives the near-certain 99.8% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view the iPhone 17 expected in 2025 as the latest step in this hardware refresh pattern, supported by consistent supply-chain timelines and Apple’s track record of incremental improvements in chips, displays, and cameras. While major disruptions such as severe component shortages, a significant redesign delay, or unexpected regulatory hurdles in major markets could theoretically shift the schedule, historical precedent shows Apple rarely skips an entire year, keeping the probability of a 2026 release extremely high.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoApple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
Apple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
>99% probabilità
$251,958 Vol.
$251,958 Vol.
31 dic 2026
>99% probabilità
$251,958 Vol.
$251,958 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-established annual iPhone release cycle, with new models typically announced each September, drives the near-certain 99.8% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view the iPhone 17 expected in 2025 as the latest step in this hardware refresh pattern, supported by consistent supply-chain timelines and Apple’s track record of incremental improvements in chips, displays, and cameras. While major disruptions such as severe component shortages, a significant redesign delay, or unexpected regulatory hurdles in major markets could theoretically shift the schedule, historical precedent shows Apple rarely skips an entire year, keeping the probability of a 2026 release extremely high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$251,958Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-established annual iPhone release cycle, with new models typically announced each September, drives the near-certain 99.8% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view the iPhone 17 expected in 2025 as the latest step in this hardware refresh pattern, supported by consistent supply-chain timelines and Apple’s track record of incremental improvements in chips, displays, and cameras. While major disruptions such as severe component shortages, a significant redesign delay, or unexpected regulatory hurdles in major markets could theoretically shift the schedule, historical precedent shows Apple rarely skips an entire year, keeping the probability of a 2026 release extremely high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$251,958Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Apple’s long-established annual iPhone release cycle, with new models typically announced each September, drives the near-certain 99.8% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view the iPhone 17 expected in 2025 as the latest step in this hardware refresh pattern, supported by consistent supply-chain timelines and Apple’s track record of incremental improvements in chips, displays, and cameras. While major disruptions such as severe component shortages, a significant redesign delay, or unexpected regulatory hurdles in major markets could theoretically shift the schedule, historical precedent shows Apple rarely skips an entire year, keeping the probability of a 2026 release extremely high.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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