Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability for at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, per IMF PortWatch arrivals data, amid a U.S.-enforced blockade slashing traffic from a pre-crisis average of ~100 vessels daily to single digits earlier this month. Recent surges—over 20 commercial ships in the past 24 hours and 34 reported yesterday—along with Iran's proposal for safe Omani-side passage and U.S.-Iran talks potentially extending the April 21 ceasefire, have boosted sentiment for modest recovery. Brent crude near $95/bbl reflects a persistent risk premium on the ~20% of global oil flows through this chokepoint, with daily PortWatch updates and negotiation breakthroughs as key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLe navi __ transiteranno per lo Stretto di Hormuz in qualsiasi giorno entro la fine di aprile?
Le navi __ transiteranno per lo Stretto di Hormuz in qualsiasi giorno entro la fine di aprile?
$401,478 Vol.
30 apr 2026
20+
78%
40+
46%
60+
34%
80+
24%
$401,478 Vol.
20+
$169,518 Vol.
78%
40+
$64,234 Vol.
46%
60+
$65,129 Vol.
34%
80+
$103,113 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability for at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, per IMF PortWatch arrivals data, amid a U.S.-enforced blockade slashing traffic from a pre-crisis average of ~100 vessels daily to single digits earlier this month. Recent surges—over 20 commercial ships in the past 24 hours and 34 reported yesterday—along with Iran's proposal for safe Omani-side passage and U.S.-Iran talks potentially extending the April 21 ceasefire, have boosted sentiment for modest recovery. Brent crude near $95/bbl reflects a persistent risk premium on the ~20% of global oil flows through this chokepoint, with daily PortWatch updates and negotiation breakthroughs as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
Volume
$401,478Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability for at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, per IMF PortWatch arrivals data, amid a U.S.-enforced blockade slashing traffic from a pre-crisis average of ~100 vessels daily to single digits earlier this month. Recent surges—over 20 commercial ships in the past 24 hours and 34 reported yesterday—along with Iran's proposal for safe Omani-side passage and U.S.-Iran talks potentially extending the April 21 ceasefire, have boosted sentiment for modest recovery. Brent crude near $95/bbl reflects a persistent risk premium on the ~20% of global oil flows through this chokepoint, with daily PortWatch updates and negotiation breakthroughs as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$401,478Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability for at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, per IMF PortWatch arrivals data, amid a U.S.-enforced blockade slashing traffic from a pre-crisis average of ~100 vessels daily to single digits earlier this month. Recent surges—over 20 commercial ships in the past 24 hours and 34 reported yesterday—along with Iran's proposal for safe Omani-side passage and U.S.-Iran talks potentially extending the April 21 ceasefire, have boosted sentiment for modest recovery. Brent crude near $95/bbl reflects a persistent risk premium on the ~20% of global oil flows through this chokepoint, with daily PortWatch updates and negotiation breakthroughs as key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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