Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race, with traders assigning a 94.9% implied probability to a Republican victory. Arkansas's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with Cotton's strong primary performance and established incumbency, underpin the market consensus. Recent polling shows Cotton maintaining a lead despite one closer survey, while nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safely Republican. A Democratic upset would require significant shifts such as a major candidate-specific development, unexpected turnout surge among opposition voters, or late national political realignment within the final months before the November election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$16,047 Vol.
$16,047 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
95%
民主党
4%
$16,047 Vol.
$16,047 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
$12,081 Vol.
95%
民主党
$3,965 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race, with traders assigning a 94.9% implied probability to a Republican victory. Arkansas's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with Cotton's strong primary performance and established incumbency, underpin the market consensus. Recent polling shows Cotton maintaining a lead despite one closer survey, while nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safely Republican. A Democratic upset would require significant shifts such as a major candidate-specific development, unexpected turnout surge among opposition voters, or late national political realignment within the final months before the November election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$16,047終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race, with traders assigning a 94.9% implied probability to a Republican victory. Arkansas's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with Cotton's strong primary performance and established incumbency, underpin the market consensus. Recent polling shows Cotton maintaining a lead despite one closer survey, while nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safely Republican. A Democratic upset would require significant shifts such as a major candidate-specific development, unexpected turnout surge among opposition voters, or late national political realignment within the final months before the November election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$16,047終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race, with traders assigning a 94.9% implied probability to a Republican victory. Arkansas's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with Cotton's strong primary performance and established incumbency, underpin the market consensus. Recent polling shows Cotton maintaining a lead despite one closer survey, while nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as safely Republican. A Democratic upset would require significant shifts such as a major candidate-specific development, unexpected turnout surge among opposition voters, or late national political realignment within the final months before the November election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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