Recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed euro-area inflation expectations higher for 2026, prompting markets to price in at least one 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike by year-end from the current 2.00% level. Professional forecaster surveys and interest rate futures reflect this shift, with the next policy meeting on June 11 widely expected to deliver the initial tightening amid resilient labor markets and concerns over second-round effects. Trader consensus at 99.1% for a rate hike in 2026 captures this data-dependent path. Faster resolution of supply shocks, sharper commodity price declines, or unexpectedly weak demand could still reduce the need for action and shift outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$130,217 Vol.
$130,217 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$130,217 Vol.
$130,217 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed euro-area inflation expectations higher for 2026, prompting markets to price in at least one 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike by year-end from the current 2.00% level. Professional forecaster surveys and interest rate futures reflect this shift, with the next policy meeting on June 11 widely expected to deliver the initial tightening amid resilient labor markets and concerns over second-round effects. Trader consensus at 99.1% for a rate hike in 2026 captures this data-dependent path. Faster resolution of supply shocks, sharper commodity price declines, or unexpectedly weak demand could still reduce the need for action and shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
音量
$130,217終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed euro-area inflation expectations higher for 2026, prompting markets to price in at least one 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike by year-end from the current 2.00% level. Professional forecaster surveys and interest rate futures reflect this shift, with the next policy meeting on June 11 widely expected to deliver the initial tightening amid resilient labor markets and concerns over second-round effects. Trader consensus at 99.1% for a rate hike in 2026 captures this data-dependent path. Faster resolution of supply shocks, sharper commodity price declines, or unexpectedly weak demand could still reduce the need for action and shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$130,217終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed euro-area inflation expectations higher for 2026, prompting markets to price in at least one 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike by year-end from the current 2.00% level. Professional forecaster surveys and interest rate futures reflect this shift, with the next policy meeting on June 11 widely expected to deliver the initial tightening amid resilient labor markets and concerns over second-round effects. Trader consensus at 99.1% for a rate hike in 2026 captures this data-dependent path. Faster resolution of supply shocks, sharper commodity price declines, or unexpectedly weak demand could still reduce the need for action and shift outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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