The European Central Bank's Governing Council faces upward revisions to 2026 headline inflation expectations, now around 2.7 percent, driven by energy price pressures from recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East. This has shifted market-implied paths toward at least one 25-basis-point increase in the deposit facility rate during the year, with near-term meetings already pricing high probabilities of tightening from the current 2 percent level. Traders assign overwhelming consensus to a hike occurring because incoming data on core inflation and second-round effects remain above the 2 percent target, prompting a data-dependent stance rather than pre-committed easing. Even with this positioning, a sharper decline in commodity costs, subdued euro-area demand, or faster geopolitical de-escalation could still lead the Council to hold rates steady through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$132,535 Vol.
$132,535 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$132,535 Vol.
$132,535 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank's Governing Council faces upward revisions to 2026 headline inflation expectations, now around 2.7 percent, driven by energy price pressures from recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East. This has shifted market-implied paths toward at least one 25-basis-point increase in the deposit facility rate during the year, with near-term meetings already pricing high probabilities of tightening from the current 2 percent level. Traders assign overwhelming consensus to a hike occurring because incoming data on core inflation and second-round effects remain above the 2 percent target, prompting a data-dependent stance rather than pre-committed easing. Even with this positioning, a sharper decline in commodity costs, subdued euro-area demand, or faster geopolitical de-escalation could still lead the Council to hold rates steady through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
音量
$132,535終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank's Governing Council faces upward revisions to 2026 headline inflation expectations, now around 2.7 percent, driven by energy price pressures from recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East. This has shifted market-implied paths toward at least one 25-basis-point increase in the deposit facility rate during the year, with near-term meetings already pricing high probabilities of tightening from the current 2 percent level. Traders assign overwhelming consensus to a hike occurring because incoming data on core inflation and second-round effects remain above the 2 percent target, prompting a data-dependent stance rather than pre-committed easing. Even with this positioning, a sharper decline in commodity costs, subdued euro-area demand, or faster geopolitical de-escalation could still lead the Council to hold rates steady through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$132,535終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The European Central Bank's Governing Council faces upward revisions to 2026 headline inflation expectations, now around 2.7 percent, driven by energy price pressures from recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East. This has shifted market-implied paths toward at least one 25-basis-point increase in the deposit facility rate during the year, with near-term meetings already pricing high probabilities of tightening from the current 2 percent level. Traders assign overwhelming consensus to a hike occurring because incoming data on core inflation and second-round effects remain above the 2 percent target, prompting a data-dependent stance rather than pre-committed easing. Even with this positioning, a sharper decline in commodity costs, subdued euro-area demand, or faster geopolitical de-escalation could still lead the Council to hold rates steady through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問