Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, combined with resilient U.S. growth and labor market data, has driven the 72.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the June 2026 dot plot showed nine of 19 participants projecting a higher year-end rate at 3.8%, up from prior medians, while futures markets price roughly 20 basis points of tightening by December. Recent FOMC minutes and hawkish commentary have reinforced trader consensus that policy may need to move higher for longer before any easing cycle begins, with the September 15–16 meeting as the next key catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
72% 確率
$8,697,454 Vol.
$8,697,454 Vol.
2026/12/08
はい
72% 確率
$8,697,454 Vol.
$8,697,454 Vol.
2026/12/08
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, combined with resilient U.S. growth and labor market data, has driven the 72.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the June 2026 dot plot showed nine of 19 participants projecting a higher year-end rate at 3.8%, up from prior medians, while futures markets price roughly 20 basis points of tightening by December. Recent FOMC minutes and hawkish commentary have reinforced trader consensus that policy may need to move higher for longer before any easing cycle begins, with the September 15–16 meeting as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
音量
$8,697,454終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, combined with resilient U.S. growth and labor market data, has driven the 72.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the June 2026 dot plot showed nine of 19 participants projecting a higher year-end rate at 3.8%, up from prior medians, while futures markets price roughly 20 basis points of tightening by December. Recent FOMC minutes and hawkish commentary have reinforced trader consensus that policy may need to move higher for longer before any easing cycle begins, with the September 15–16 meeting as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$8,697,454終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, combined with resilient U.S. growth and labor market data, has driven the 72.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the June 2026 dot plot showed nine of 19 participants projecting a higher year-end rate at 3.8%, up from prior medians, while futures markets price roughly 20 basis points of tightening by December. Recent FOMC minutes and hawkish commentary have reinforced trader consensus that policy may need to move higher for longer before any easing cycle begins, with the September 15–16 meeting as the next key catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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