Recent forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a Beijing high of 29–30°C on September 15 under clear skies and light southerly flow, placing these outcomes at the center of trader positioning. This aligns with a persistent warm anomaly across northern China, where September 2026 temperatures have run 2–4°C above the 1991–2020 average high of 26.5°C amid stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover. Historical records show extremes up to 31.9°C, yet current guidance shows little intensification risk before cooler air arrives later in the week. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread in ensemble runs and the resolution threshold of official observations when assigning the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月15日の北京の最高気温は？
9月15日の北京の最高気温は？
29℃ 51%
30℃ 25%
28℃ 17%
31°C 5%
新規
新規
2026/09/15
25°C以下
2%
26℃
2%
27℃
4%
28℃
17%
29℃
51%
30℃
25%
31°C
5%
32°C
3%
33℃
2%
34℃
2%
35℃以上
1%
29℃ 51%
30℃ 25%
28℃ 17%
31°C 5%
新規
新規
2026/09/15
25°C以下
$35 Vol.
2%
26℃
$10 Vol.
2%
27℃
$177 Vol.
4%
28℃
$643 Vol.
17%
29℃
$1,458 Vol.
51%
30℃
$369 Vol.
25%
31°C
$164 Vol.
5%
32°C
$148 Vol.
3%
33℃
$48 Vol.
2%
34℃
$10 Vol.
2%
35℃以上
$183 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a Beijing high of 29–30°C on September 15 under clear skies and light southerly flow, placing these outcomes at the center of trader positioning. This aligns with a persistent warm anomaly across northern China, where September 2026 temperatures have run 2–4°C above the 1991–2020 average high of 26.5°C amid stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover. Historical records show extremes up to 31.9°C, yet current guidance shows little intensification risk before cooler air arrives later in the week. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread in ensemble runs and the resolution threshold of official observations when assigning the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
音量
$3,246終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a Beijing high of 29–30°C on September 15 under clear skies and light southerly flow, placing these outcomes at the center of trader positioning. This aligns with a persistent warm anomaly across northern China, where September 2026 temperatures have run 2–4°C above the 1991–2020 average high of 26.5°C amid stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover. Historical records show extremes up to 31.9°C, yet current guidance shows little intensification risk before cooler air arrives later in the week. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread in ensemble runs and the resolution threshold of official observations when assigning the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$3,246終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETRecent forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a Beijing high of 29–30°C on September 15 under clear skies and light southerly flow, placing these outcomes at the center of trader positioning. This aligns with a persistent warm anomaly across northern China, where September 2026 temperatures have run 2–4°C above the 1991–2020 average high of 26.5°C amid stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover. Historical records show extremes up to 31.9°C, yet current guidance shows little intensification risk before cooler air arrives later in the week. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread in ensemble runs and the resolution threshold of official observations when assigning the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問