Recent forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international models indicate Mexico City’s maximum temperature on August 9 will likely fall near the seasonal August average of 23–25 °C, with trader consensus centered on 24 °C. Persistent monsoon moisture and expected afternoon chubascos are limiting daytime heating by increasing cloud cover and evaporative cooling, while the city’s high elevation keeps baseline values moderate. Historical data show rare exceedances above 26 °C in early August without strong high-pressure ridging, which current guidance does not support. Updated model runs and official outlooks through the weekend will refine these probabilities as the 24-hour window approaches.