**Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a highest temperature in Miami on August 24 in the low-to-mid 90s, aligning closely with the market’s leading 90–93 °F bins (combined ~83 % implied probability).** Persistent southerly flow and high atmospheric moisture from a broad heat dome over the Southeast are maintaining elevated baseline temperatures, while the typical late-August pattern of afternoon sea-breeze convergence and scattered thunderstorms acts as the primary moderating influence. These convective developments often initiate by early afternoon, limiting peak readings through evaporative cooling and increased cloud cover—explaining why traders assign only modest weight to the 94–95 °F (6 %) and higher bins. The recent record-tying 100 °F observation earlier in the month demonstrated the potential for extreme readings when subsidence and clear skies suppress convection, but current model consensus shows a higher likelihood of storms tomorrow, keeping the distribution centered near the long-term August average high of ~89–90 °F. Forecasters will issue updated model runs and heat advisories through the morning of the 24th; any delay in convective initiation or stronger boundary-layer mixing could shift odds toward the upper 90s, while earlier or heavier showers would reinforce the 90–93 °F range.