Divergent short-term forecast model outputs for maximum temperatures on September 6 explain the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 12–15°C. An approaching frontal system and shifting northwesterly winds introduce uncertainty in daytime heating and cloud cover, with official guidance from MetService and NIWA pointing to highs near seasonal norms of 13–14°C amid possible showers. Recent observations show mild conditions with strong northwesterlies moderating overnight lows, while ensemble spreads reflect typical spring variability in advection and orographic effects over the Wellington region. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月6日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
9月6日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
15℃ 50%
14℃ 49%
16℃ 31%
12℃ 16%
新規
新規
2026/09/06
9℃以下
4%
10℃
4%
11°C
4%
12℃
16%
13℃
15%
14℃
49%
15℃
50%
16℃
31%
17℃
7%
18℃
6%
19℃以上
5%
15℃ 50%
14℃ 49%
16℃ 31%
12℃ 16%
新規
新規
2026/09/06
9℃以下
$0 Vol.
4%
10℃
$0 Vol.
4%
11°C
$0 Vol.
4%
12℃
$0 Vol.
16%
13℃
$0 Vol.
15%
14℃
$0 Vol.
49%
15℃
$0 Vol.
50%
16℃
$0 Vol.
31%
17℃
$0 Vol.
7%
18℃
$0 Vol.
6%
19℃以上
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Divergent short-term forecast model outputs for maximum temperatures on September 6 explain the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 12–15°C. An approaching frontal system and shifting northwesterly winds introduce uncertainty in daytime heating and cloud cover, with official guidance from MetService and NIWA pointing to highs near seasonal norms of 13–14°C amid possible showers. Recent observations show mild conditions with strong northwesterlies moderating overnight lows, while ensemble spreads reflect typical spring variability in advection and orographic effects over the Wellington region. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/06マーケット開始日
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Divergent short-term forecast model outputs for maximum temperatures on September 6 explain the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 12–15°C. An approaching frontal system and shifting northwesterly winds introduce uncertainty in daytime heating and cloud cover, with official guidance from MetService and NIWA pointing to highs near seasonal norms of 13–14°C amid possible showers. Recent observations show mild conditions with strong northwesterlies moderating overnight lows, while ensemble spreads reflect typical spring variability in advection and orographic effects over the Wellington region. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/06マーケット開始日
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETDivergent short-term forecast model outputs for maximum temperatures on September 6 explain the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 12–15°C. An approaching frontal system and shifting northwesterly winds introduce uncertainty in daytime heating and cloud cover, with official guidance from MetService and NIWA pointing to highs near seasonal norms of 13–14°C amid possible showers. Recent observations show mild conditions with strong northwesterlies moderating overnight lows, while ensemble spreads reflect typical spring variability in advection and orographic effects over the Wellington region. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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