Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement two days ago authorizing direct negotiations with Lebanon—aimed at Hezbollah disarmament and a potential peace agreement—has surged trader consensus to 83% odds for an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19 on Polymarket. Israel and Lebanon's ambassadors to the US held their first phone contact yesterday, agreeing to a formal meeting at the State Department on Tuesday under US mediation, marking a historic shift amid ongoing border clashes. This follows a month of escalated fighting since early March, with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun signaling readiness for talks independent of Hezbollah. Risks persist from military actions and Iran's proxy influence, but the scheduled Washington session could resolve nearer-term buckets if deemed qualifying.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
$77,403 Vol.
2026/04/30
4月12日
3%
4月19日
82%
4月30日
92%
$77,403 Vol.
4月12日
$57,379 Vol.
3%
4月19日
$13,245 Vol.
82%
4月30日
$6,799 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement two days ago authorizing direct negotiations with Lebanon—aimed at Hezbollah disarmament and a potential peace agreement—has surged trader consensus to 83% odds for an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19 on Polymarket. Israel and Lebanon's ambassadors to the US held their first phone contact yesterday, agreeing to a formal meeting at the State Department on Tuesday under US mediation, marking a historic shift amid ongoing border clashes. This follows a month of escalated fighting since early March, with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun signaling readiness for talks independent of Hezbollah. Risks persist from military actions and Iran's proxy influence, but the scheduled Washington session could resolve nearer-term buckets if deemed qualifying.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Apr 9, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
音量
$77,403終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 9, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement two days ago authorizing direct negotiations with Lebanon—aimed at Hezbollah disarmament and a potential peace agreement—has surged trader consensus to 83% odds for an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19 on Polymarket. Israel and Lebanon's ambassadors to the US held their first phone contact yesterday, agreeing to a formal meeting at the State Department on Tuesday under US mediation, marking a historic shift amid ongoing border clashes. This follows a month of escalated fighting since early March, with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun signaling readiness for talks independent of Hezbollah. Risks persist from military actions and Iran's proxy influence, but the scheduled Washington session could resolve nearer-term buckets if deemed qualifying.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$77,403終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 9, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement two days ago authorizing direct negotiations with Lebanon—aimed at Hezbollah disarmament and a potential peace agreement—has surged trader consensus to 83% odds for an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19 on Polymarket. Israel and Lebanon's ambassadors to the US held their first phone contact yesterday, agreeing to a formal meeting at the State Department on Tuesday under US mediation, marking a historic shift amid ongoing border clashes. This follows a month of escalated fighting since early March, with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun signaling readiness for talks independent of Hezbollah. Risks persist from military actions and Iran's proxy influence, but the scheduled Washington session could resolve nearer-term buckets if deemed qualifying.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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