The Justice Department’s April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell—after a federal judge found “zero evidence” of wrongdoing beyond displeasing the president—has anchored trader consensus that the “No” outcome on incarceration before 2027 is near-certain. The inquiry centered on Powell’s Senate testimony regarding the Fed’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, but prosecutors conceded a lack of basis for charges, leading to referral to the Fed’s inspector general, who previously identified no fraud. With Powell’s term concluding in May 2026 and no subsequent legal developments, market-implied odds of 98% reflect the absence of any realistic pathway to conviction or imprisonment in the final months of the year. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to improbable restarts of the probe or unrelated matters surfacing before year-end.