Incumbent Republican Ron Estes secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary and enters the November general election in Kansas's 4th District with strong structural advantages. The Wichita-centered district has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, reflected in unanimous forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic nominee Katy Tyndell and Libertarian Drew Cranmer face a steep climb against an established incumbent with no recent primary vulnerabilities or major local controversies. Trader consensus at 92.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as a significant national partisan shift, candidate health issues, or unexpected turnout surges in Democratic-leaning precincts could narrow the margin before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$63,855 Vol.
$63,855 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$63,855 Vol.
$63,855 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$35,588 Vol.
93%
民主党
$28,266 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ron Estes secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary and enters the November general election in Kansas's 4th District with strong structural advantages. The Wichita-centered district has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, reflected in unanimous forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic nominee Katy Tyndell and Libertarian Drew Cranmer face a steep climb against an established incumbent with no recent primary vulnerabilities or major local controversies. Trader consensus at 92.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as a significant national partisan shift, candidate health issues, or unexpected turnout surges in Democratic-leaning precincts could narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$63,855終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ron Estes secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary and enters the November general election in Kansas's 4th District with strong structural advantages. The Wichita-centered district has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, reflected in unanimous forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic nominee Katy Tyndell and Libertarian Drew Cranmer face a steep climb against an established incumbent with no recent primary vulnerabilities or major local controversies. Trader consensus at 92.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as a significant national partisan shift, candidate health issues, or unexpected turnout surges in Democratic-leaning precincts could narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$63,855終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Ron Estes secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary and enters the November general election in Kansas's 4th District with strong structural advantages. The Wichita-centered district has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, reflected in unanimous forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic nominee Katy Tyndell and Libertarian Drew Cranmer face a steep climb against an established incumbent with no recent primary vulnerabilities or major local controversies. Trader consensus at 92.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as a significant national partisan shift, candidate health issues, or unexpected turnout surges in Democratic-leaning precincts could narrow the margin before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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