**Nathalie Roy of the Coalition Avenir Québec holds a clear lead in the Montarville riding for the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election.** As the incumbent since 2012 and former National Assembly president, she benefits from established name recognition and the riding’s recent CAQ history, including a 45.9% vote share in 2022 on the transposed map. Recent projections from 338Canada and Qc125 as of mid-September show the CAQ leaning to hold the seat, with projected support in the mid-30s to low-40s percent range against a competitive but trailing PQ. Jean-François Cloutier, the PQ candidate and former investigative journalist at the Journal de Montréal, represents the main opposition. His August 2026 candidacy announcement drew attention given the PQ’s stronger provincial polling trajectory, yet local factors and Roy’s incumbency keep her favored in trader assessments. Other candidates, including Mathieu Lavoie (Quebec Liberal Party) and Ginette Langlois (Québec solidaire), register minimal market support consistent with their parties’ lower projected shares in the riding. The election writ dropped in late August, with nominations closing September 17. Market pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing Roy’s structural advantages in a riding that has leaned CAQ in recent cycles, even amid broader shifts in Quebec voter sentiment.