New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt driven by voter registration advantages and consistent performance in prior cycles across Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman opened a crowded Democratic primary won by Adam Hamawy, who now faces Republican Gregg Mele in the November general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural fundamentals and the limited Republican path to victory in this area. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a late scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, an unusually strong national Republican environment shifting turnout, or unusually low Democratic participation, though historical patterns and registration data suggest such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$22,311 Vol.
$22,311 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$22,311 Vol.
$22,311 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,221 Vol.
94%
共和党
$8,089 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt driven by voter registration advantages and consistent performance in prior cycles across Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman opened a crowded Democratic primary won by Adam Hamawy, who now faces Republican Gregg Mele in the November general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural fundamentals and the limited Republican path to victory in this area. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a late scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, an unusually strong national Republican environment shifting turnout, or unusually low Democratic participation, though historical patterns and registration data suggest such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$22,311終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt driven by voter registration advantages and consistent performance in prior cycles across Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman opened a crowded Democratic primary won by Adam Hamawy, who now faces Republican Gregg Mele in the November general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural fundamentals and the limited Republican path to victory in this area. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a late scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, an unusually strong national Republican environment shifting turnout, or unusually low Democratic participation, though historical patterns and registration data suggest such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$22,311終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt driven by voter registration advantages and consistent performance in prior cycles across Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman opened a crowded Democratic primary won by Adam Hamawy, who now faces Republican Gregg Mele in the November general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural fundamentals and the limited Republican path to victory in this area. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a late scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, an unusually strong national Republican environment shifting turnout, or unusually low Democratic participation, though historical patterns and registration data suggest such shifts would require substantial deviation from established voting trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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