Summer Lee’s incumbency as the Democratic representative for Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district since 2023 anchors trader consensus around a 94.5% probability for the Democratic Party in the November 2026 general election. The district’s consistent partisan lean, Lee’s decisive May primary victory over intra-party challengers, and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising momentum have reinforced this positioning. James Hayes, the Republican nominee, trails at 3.7% amid low visibility. Trader pricing reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of structural advantages, though late-cycle national shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$16,307 Vol.
$16,307 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$16,307 Vol.
$16,307 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$11,658 Vol.
95%
共和党
$4,649 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Summer Lee’s incumbency as the Democratic representative for Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district since 2023 anchors trader consensus around a 94.5% probability for the Democratic Party in the November 2026 general election. The district’s consistent partisan lean, Lee’s decisive May primary victory over intra-party challengers, and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising momentum have reinforced this positioning. James Hayes, the Republican nominee, trails at 3.7% amid low visibility. Trader pricing reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of structural advantages, though late-cycle national shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$16,307終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Summer Lee’s incumbency as the Democratic representative for Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district since 2023 anchors trader consensus around a 94.5% probability for the Democratic Party in the November 2026 general election. The district’s consistent partisan lean, Lee’s decisive May primary victory over intra-party challengers, and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising momentum have reinforced this positioning. James Hayes, the Republican nominee, trails at 3.7% amid low visibility. Trader pricing reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of structural advantages, though late-cycle national shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$16,307終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Summer Lee’s incumbency as the Democratic representative for Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district since 2023 anchors trader consensus around a 94.5% probability for the Democratic Party in the November 2026 general election. The district’s consistent partisan lean, Lee’s decisive May primary victory over intra-party challengers, and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising momentum have reinforced this positioning. James Hayes, the Republican nominee, trails at 3.7% amid low visibility. Trader pricing reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of structural advantages, though late-cycle national shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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