OpenAI executives have driven the near-certain market-implied odds against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 through repeated public and internal signals favoring delay. CEO Sam Altman stated in September 2026 that 2026 would be an “ill-advised moment” for a listing, citing the need to prioritize AI safety, alignment, and governance work best handled privately, while CFO Sarah Friar has targeted 2027. Earlier June reports highlighted Altman’s refusal to list below $1 trillion amid tech-market volatility and post-SpaceX IPO caution, despite a confidential SEC filing and $852 billion private valuation. Traders’ strong consensus reflects these consistent signals from leadership and the company’s heavy infrastructure spending needs. A sudden capital crunch, rapid safety resolution, or competitive pressure from Anthropic could still shift timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
$312,553 Vol.
$312,553 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
2% 確率
$312,553 Vol.
$312,553 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI executives have driven the near-certain market-implied odds against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 through repeated public and internal signals favoring delay. CEO Sam Altman stated in September 2026 that 2026 would be an “ill-advised moment” for a listing, citing the need to prioritize AI safety, alignment, and governance work best handled privately, while CFO Sarah Friar has targeted 2027. Earlier June reports highlighted Altman’s refusal to list below $1 trillion amid tech-market volatility and post-SpaceX IPO caution, despite a confidential SEC filing and $852 billion private valuation. Traders’ strong consensus reflects these consistent signals from leadership and the company’s heavy infrastructure spending needs. A sudden capital crunch, rapid safety resolution, or competitive pressure from Anthropic could still shift timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
音量
$312,553終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI executives have driven the near-certain market-implied odds against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 through repeated public and internal signals favoring delay. CEO Sam Altman stated in September 2026 that 2026 would be an “ill-advised moment” for a listing, citing the need to prioritize AI safety, alignment, and governance work best handled privately, while CFO Sarah Friar has targeted 2027. Earlier June reports highlighted Altman’s refusal to list below $1 trillion amid tech-market volatility and post-SpaceX IPO caution, despite a confidential SEC filing and $852 billion private valuation. Traders’ strong consensus reflects these consistent signals from leadership and the company’s heavy infrastructure spending needs. A sudden capital crunch, rapid safety resolution, or competitive pressure from Anthropic could still shift timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
音量
$0終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...OpenAI executives have driven the near-certain market-implied odds against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 through repeated public and internal signals favoring delay. CEO Sam Altman stated in September 2026 that 2026 would be an “ill-advised moment” for a listing, citing the need to prioritize AI safety, alignment, and governance work best handled privately, while CFO Sarah Friar has targeted 2027. Earlier June reports highlighted Altman’s refusal to list below $1 trillion amid tech-market volatility and post-SpaceX IPO caution, despite a confidential SEC filing and $852 billion private valuation. Traders’ strong consensus reflects these consistent signals from leadership and the company’s heavy infrastructure spending needs. A sudden capital crunch, rapid safety resolution, or competitive pressure from Anthropic could still shift timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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