**OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s refusal to accept any IPO valuation below $1 trillion have anchored trader expectations.** Recent reporting shows the company rejected a faster 2026 listing at a lower price, citing SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility as a cautionary signal for investor appetite in large AI listings. CFO Sarah Friar reinforced this in an August 2026 all-hands meeting, stating the firm “will be a public company in 2027” unless revenue growth accelerates sharply. OpenAI’s last private round valued it at roughly $852 billion, while it continues posting steep operating losses amid heavy infrastructure commitments for training frontier models. These factors, combined with the absence of any announced 2026 pricing window, have driven the 85.5% market-implied probability against a $1 trillion-plus debut before year-end 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
15% 確率
$298,086 Vol.
$298,086 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
15% 確率
$298,086 Vol.
$298,086 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.**OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s refusal to accept any IPO valuation below $1 trillion have anchored trader expectations.** Recent reporting shows the company rejected a faster 2026 listing at a lower price, citing SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility as a cautionary signal for investor appetite in large AI listings. CFO Sarah Friar reinforced this in an August 2026 all-hands meeting, stating the firm “will be a public company in 2027” unless revenue growth accelerates sharply. OpenAI’s last private round valued it at roughly $852 billion, while it continues posting steep operating losses amid heavy infrastructure commitments for training frontier models. These factors, combined with the absence of any announced 2026 pricing window, have driven the 85.5% market-implied probability against a $1 trillion-plus debut before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
音量
$298,086終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.**OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s refusal to accept any IPO valuation below $1 trillion have anchored trader expectations.** Recent reporting shows the company rejected a faster 2026 listing at a lower price, citing SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility as a cautionary signal for investor appetite in large AI listings. CFO Sarah Friar reinforced this in an August 2026 all-hands meeting, stating the firm “will be a public company in 2027” unless revenue growth accelerates sharply. OpenAI’s last private round valued it at roughly $852 billion, while it continues posting steep operating losses amid heavy infrastructure commitments for training frontier models. These factors, combined with the absence of any announced 2026 pricing window, have driven the 85.5% market-implied probability against a $1 trillion-plus debut before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
音量
$298,086終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s refusal to accept any IPO valuation below $1 trillion have anchored trader expectations.** Recent reporting shows the company rejected a faster 2026 listing at a lower price, citing SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility as a cautionary signal for investor appetite in large AI listings. CFO Sarah Friar reinforced this in an August 2026 all-hands meeting, stating the firm “will be a public company in 2027” unless revenue growth accelerates sharply. OpenAI’s last private round valued it at roughly $852 billion, while it continues posting steep operating losses amid heavy infrastructure commitments for training frontier models. These factors, combined with the absence of any announced 2026 pricing window, have driven the 85.5% market-implied probability against a $1 trillion-plus debut before year-end 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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