Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Joe Biden at 94% implied probability as the most likely target of a public insult from President Trump by April 30, driven by the former president's routine disparagement of Biden on Truth Social amid persistent campaign-era rhetoric and policy disputes. Keir Starmer follows at around 80%, possibly reflecting transatlantic tensions over foreign policy, while Barack Obama sits at 68% based on historical patterns of personal attacks. Recent catalysts include Trump's past-week rebukes of Pope Leo XIV—calling him "weak on crime" and too liberal after papal criticism of U.S. threats against Iran—pricing that outcome at 35%, and his accusation that ally Giorgia Meloni lacks courage for declining to join potential strikes. With two weeks remaining, traders watch Trump's frequent Truth Social posts and any G7 or diplomatic developments for shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$53,124 Vol.
2026/04/30
Joe Biden
98%
Keir Starmer
63%
Barack Obama
64%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
49%
Pope Leo XIV
30%
Tucker Carlson
29%
Megyn Kelly
29%
Alex Jones
15%
Pam Bondi
8%
Viktor Orbán
5%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
Elon Musk
4%
Vladimir Putin
3%
J.D. Vance
2%
Xi Jinping
2%
Melania Trump
1%
Candace Owens
43%
$53,124 Vol.
Joe Biden
$22,442 Vol.
98%
Keir Starmer
$40 Vol.
63%
Barack Obama
$1,337 Vol.
64%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$167 Vol.
49%
Pope Leo XIV
$1,478 Vol.
30%
Tucker Carlson
$754 Vol.
29%
Megyn Kelly
$0 Vol.
29%
Alex Jones
$1,314 Vol.
15%
Pam Bondi
$438 Vol.
8%
Viktor Orbán
$3,051 Vol.
5%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$5,956 Vol.
5%
Elon Musk
$817 Vol.
4%
Vladimir Putin
$1,438 Vol.
3%
J.D. Vance
$3,102 Vol.
2%
Xi Jinping
$5,761 Vol.
2%
Melania Trump
$5,124 Vol.
1%
Candace Owens
$47 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Joe Biden at 94% implied probability as the most likely target of a public insult from President Trump by April 30, driven by the former president's routine disparagement of Biden on Truth Social amid persistent campaign-era rhetoric and policy disputes. Keir Starmer follows at around 80%, possibly reflecting transatlantic tensions over foreign policy, while Barack Obama sits at 68% based on historical patterns of personal attacks. Recent catalysts include Trump's past-week rebukes of Pope Leo XIV—calling him "weak on crime" and too liberal after papal criticism of U.S. threats against Iran—pricing that outcome at 35%, and his accusation that ally Giorgia Meloni lacks courage for declining to join potential strikes. With two weeks remaining, traders watch Trump's frequent Truth Social posts and any G7 or diplomatic developments for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
音量
$53,124終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Joe Biden at 94% implied probability as the most likely target of a public insult from President Trump by April 30, driven by the former president's routine disparagement of Biden on Truth Social amid persistent campaign-era rhetoric and policy disputes. Keir Starmer follows at around 80%, possibly reflecting transatlantic tensions over foreign policy, while Barack Obama sits at 68% based on historical patterns of personal attacks. Recent catalysts include Trump's past-week rebukes of Pope Leo XIV—calling him "weak on crime" and too liberal after papal criticism of U.S. threats against Iran—pricing that outcome at 35%, and his accusation that ally Giorgia Meloni lacks courage for declining to join potential strikes. With two weeks remaining, traders watch Trump's frequent Truth Social posts and any G7 or diplomatic developments for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$53,124終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Joe Biden at 94% implied probability as the most likely target of a public insult from President Trump by April 30, driven by the former president's routine disparagement of Biden on Truth Social amid persistent campaign-era rhetoric and policy disputes. Keir Starmer follows at around 80%, possibly reflecting transatlantic tensions over foreign policy, while Barack Obama sits at 68% based on historical patterns of personal attacks. Recent catalysts include Trump's past-week rebukes of Pope Leo XIV—calling him "weak on crime" and too liberal after papal criticism of U.S. threats against Iran—pricing that outcome at 35%, and his accusation that ally Giorgia Meloni lacks courage for declining to join potential strikes. With two weeks remaining, traders watch Trump's frequent Truth Social posts and any G7 or diplomatic developments for shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問