**Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and its JNIM allies have intensified pressure on Gao through coordinated offensives since April 2026, recapturing Kidal and contesting parts of the Gao region while conducting ambushes on military convoys and strikes near Anefis and Tabrichat.** Government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps units, have retained control of Gao city itself, including key sites such as the airport, and conducted counteroperations that retook Anefis in July. Ongoing insurgent attacks and blockades have strained supply lines, yet no verified full capture of the urban center has occurred by mid-September. The 83.5% implied probability for “No” reflects trader assessment that these barriers—sustained military presence, Russian backing, and limited rebel territorial consolidation in the city—make a decisive rebel takeover by year-end unlikely absent major shifts in force posture or external support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
17% 確率
$13,016 Vol.
$13,016 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
17% 確率
$13,016 Vol.
$13,016 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.**Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and its JNIM allies have intensified pressure on Gao through coordinated offensives since April 2026, recapturing Kidal and contesting parts of the Gao region while conducting ambushes on military convoys and strikes near Anefis and Tabrichat.** Government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps units, have retained control of Gao city itself, including key sites such as the airport, and conducted counteroperations that retook Anefis in July. Ongoing insurgent attacks and blockades have strained supply lines, yet no verified full capture of the urban center has occurred by mid-September. The 83.5% implied probability for “No” reflects trader assessment that these barriers—sustained military presence, Russian backing, and limited rebel territorial consolidation in the city—make a decisive rebel takeover by year-end unlikely absent major shifts in force posture or external support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
マーケット開始日： Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
音量
$13,016終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.**Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and its JNIM allies have intensified pressure on Gao through coordinated offensives since April 2026, recapturing Kidal and contesting parts of the Gao region while conducting ambushes on military convoys and strikes near Anefis and Tabrichat.** Government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps units, have retained control of Gao city itself, including key sites such as the airport, and conducted counteroperations that retook Anefis in July. Ongoing insurgent attacks and blockades have strained supply lines, yet no verified full capture of the urban center has occurred by mid-September. The 83.5% implied probability for “No” reflects trader assessment that these barriers—sustained military presence, Russian backing, and limited rebel territorial consolidation in the city—make a decisive rebel takeover by year-end unlikely absent major shifts in force posture or external support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
音量
$13,016終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and its JNIM allies have intensified pressure on Gao through coordinated offensives since April 2026, recapturing Kidal and contesting parts of the Gao region while conducting ambushes on military convoys and strikes near Anefis and Tabrichat.** Government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps units, have retained control of Gao city itself, including key sites such as the airport, and conducted counteroperations that retook Anefis in July. Ongoing insurgent attacks and blockades have strained supply lines, yet no verified full capture of the urban center has occurred by mid-September. The 83.5% implied probability for “No” reflects trader assessment that these barriers—sustained military presence, Russian backing, and limited rebel territorial consolidation in the city—make a decisive rebel takeover by year-end unlikely absent major shifts in force posture or external support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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