Skip to main content
icon for トランプ大統領は...までにイランに宣戦布告するか？
政治·中東

トランプ大統領は...までにイランに宣戦布告するか？

icon for トランプ大統領は...までにイランに宣戦布告するか？
政治·中東

トランプ大統領は...までにイランに宣戦布告するか？

Ended: 3月 31

Ended: 3月 31

$1,166,132 Vol.

2026/03/31
Polymarket

$1,166,132 Vol.

Polymarket

2月28日

$327,021 Vol.

いいえ

3月31日

$225,076 Vol.

いいえ

4月30日

$614,036 Vol.

いいえ

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz without resolving Tehran's nuclear program, heightening tensions amid a fragile ceasefire that began in early April following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes and a naval blockade. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced intense Senate and House questioning this week on the conflict's costs, Pentagon budget, and compliance with the War Powers Resolution, as the 60-day clock for congressional authorization approaches its May 1 deadline. Trump, briefed today by CENTCOM on fresh military options, stated only he knows the status of secretive talks, leaving open the possibility of restarting operations while trader consensus reflects uncertainty over escalation amid surging oil prices and Iranian threats against U.S. assets.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."

General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.

Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.

The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,166,132
終了日
2026/03/31
マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

提案された結果: いいえ

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: いいえ

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz without resolving Tehran's nuclear program, heightening tensions amid a fragile ceasefire that began in early April following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes and a naval blockade. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced intense Senate and House questioning this week on the conflict's costs, Pentagon budget, and compliance with the War Powers Resolution, as the 60-day clock for congressional authorization approaches its May 1 deadline. Trump, briefed today by CENTCOM on fresh military options, stated only he knows the status of secretive talks, leaving open the possibility of restarting operations while trader consensus reflects uncertainty over escalation amid surging oil prices and Iranian threats against U.S. assets.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."

General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.

Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.

The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,166,132
終了日
2026/03/31
マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

提案された結果: いいえ

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: いいえ

関連

icon for ドナルド・トランプは2026年7月31日までにジェローム・パウエルを公然と侮辱しますか？

ドナルド・トランプは2026年7月31日までにジェローム・パウエルを公然と侮辱しますか？

47%
はい
icon for 米国は2027年までにイランを侵攻しますか？

米国は2027年までにイランを侵攻しますか？

24%
はい
icon for 8月31日までに米国とイランの事実上の停戦はあるか？

8月31日までに米国とイランの事実上の停戦はあるか？

54%
はい

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「トランプ大統領は...までにイランに宣戦布告するか？」はPolymarket上の3個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2月28日」で0%、次いで「3月31日」が0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、0¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に0%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「トランプ大統領は...までにイランに宣戦布告するか？」は$1.2 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 24, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「トランプ大統領は...までにイランに宣戦布告するか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている3個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「トランプ大統領は...までにイランに宣戦布告するか？」の現在のリーダーは「2月28日」でわずか0%、「3月31日」が0%で僅差です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「トランプ大統領は...までにイランに宣戦布告するか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。