Trader consensus favors rejection of the proposed 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act ballot initiative at 64% implied probability for "No," reflecting strong opposition from tech billionaires who have pledged $35 million to fund counter-initiatives and campaigns highlighting economic fallout. Recent analyses, including a Hoover Institution study, warn of net state revenue losses exceeding $25 billion from billionaire relocations—six already departed before the January 1, 2026 residency snapshot—amid legal challenges over constitutionality and valuation of assets like voting shares. Divisions among liberal Democrats and labor unions, voiced in early April reporting, compound skepticism despite a San Diego Tribune poll (April 8-10) showing 63% support. Governor Newsom's opposition to wealth taxes and historical ballot measure ad spending dynamics further tilt trader sentiment against passage on the November 3 ballot.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$2,951,898 거래량
$2,951,898 거래량
2026.11.03
예
$2,951,898 거래량
$2,951,898 거래량
2026.11.03
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors rejection of the proposed 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act ballot initiative at 64% implied probability for "No," reflecting strong opposition from tech billionaires who have pledged $35 million to fund counter-initiatives and campaigns highlighting economic fallout. Recent analyses, including a Hoover Institution study, warn of net state revenue losses exceeding $25 billion from billionaire relocations—six already departed before the January 1, 2026 residency snapshot—amid legal challenges over constitutionality and valuation of assets like voting shares. Divisions among liberal Democrats and labor unions, voiced in early April reporting, compound skepticism despite a San Diego Tribune poll (April 8-10) showing 63% support. Governor Newsom's opposition to wealth taxes and historical ballot measure ad spending dynamics further tilt trader sentiment against passage on the November 3 ballot.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
거래량
$2,951,898종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors rejection of the proposed 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act ballot initiative at 64% implied probability for "No," reflecting strong opposition from tech billionaires who have pledged $35 million to fund counter-initiatives and campaigns highlighting economic fallout. Recent analyses, including a Hoover Institution study, warn of net state revenue losses exceeding $25 billion from billionaire relocations—six already departed before the January 1, 2026 residency snapshot—amid legal challenges over constitutionality and valuation of assets like voting shares. Divisions among liberal Democrats and labor unions, voiced in early April reporting, compound skepticism despite a San Diego Tribune poll (April 8-10) showing 63% support. Governor Newsom's opposition to wealth taxes and historical ballot measure ad spending dynamics further tilt trader sentiment against passage on the November 3 ballot.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$2,951,898종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors rejection of the proposed 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act ballot initiative at 64% implied probability for "No," reflecting strong opposition from tech billionaires who have pledged $35 million to fund counter-initiatives and campaigns highlighting economic fallout. Recent analyses, including a Hoover Institution study, warn of net state revenue losses exceeding $25 billion from billionaire relocations—six already departed before the January 1, 2026 residency snapshot—amid legal challenges over constitutionality and valuation of assets like voting shares. Divisions among liberal Democrats and labor unions, voiced in early April reporting, compound skepticism despite a San Diego Tribune poll (April 8-10) showing 63% support. Governor Newsom's opposition to wealth taxes and historical ballot measure ad spending dynamics further tilt trader sentiment against passage on the November 3 ballot.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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