Senator Flávio Bolsonaro holds a slim edge in trader consensus over incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for Brazil's October 4 presidential election first round, reflecting April polls showing Lula ahead in first-round voting intentions (37-40%) but statistical ties or Flávio leads in runoff simulations (e.g., Quaest: Flávio 42%-Lula 40%; Datafolha: 46%-45%; Futura: 48%-42.6%). Flávio's momentum stems from consolidating the right-wing vote via the enduring Bolsonaro brand after his father's ineligibility, amid Lula's approval hovering around 44% amid economic pressures and high undecideds (10-19%). Lula's March 31 selection of Geraldo Alckmin as running mate bolsters his center-left coalition, keeping the race deadlocked; separation could arise from vote consolidation post-April 4 resignation deadline, fresh polls, or economic data before party conventions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트플라비오 보우소나루 40.1%
루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바 40%
헤난 산토스 6.5%
페르난두 아다지 4.4%
$51,965,607 거래량
$51,965,607 거래량
플라비오 보우소나루
40%
루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바
40%
헤난 산토스
6%
페르난두 아다지
4%
카밀루 산타나
2%
호날두 카이아두
2%
로메우 제마
1%
자이르 보우소나루
1%
미셸 볼소나루
1%
제랄두 알크민
1%
타르시지우 데 프레이타스
<1%
에두아르두 볼소나루
<1%
알도 헤벨로
<1%
하치뉴 주니오르
<1%
에두아르두 레이트
<1%
플라비오 보우소나루 40.1%
루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바 40%
헤난 산토스 6.5%
페르난두 아다지 4.4%
$51,965,607 거래량
$51,965,607 거래량
플라비오 보우소나루
40%
루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바
40%
헤난 산토스
6%
페르난두 아다지
4%
카밀루 산타나
2%
호날두 카이아두
2%
로메우 제마
1%
자이르 보우소나루
1%
미셸 볼소나루
1%
제랄두 알크민
1%
타르시지우 데 프레이타스
<1%
에두아르두 볼소나루
<1%
알도 헤벨로
<1%
하치뉴 주니오르
<1%
에두아르두 레이트
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
마켓 개설일: Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Senator Flávio Bolsonaro holds a slim edge in trader consensus over incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for Brazil's October 4 presidential election first round, reflecting April polls showing Lula ahead in first-round voting intentions (37-40%) but statistical ties or Flávio leads in runoff simulations (e.g., Quaest: Flávio 42%-Lula 40%; Datafolha: 46%-45%; Futura: 48%-42.6%). Flávio's momentum stems from consolidating the right-wing vote via the enduring Bolsonaro brand after his father's ineligibility, amid Lula's approval hovering around 44% amid economic pressures and high undecideds (10-19%). Lula's March 31 selection of Geraldo Alckmin as running mate bolsters his center-left coalition, keeping the race deadlocked; separation could arise from vote consolidation post-April 4 resignation deadline, fresh polls, or economic data before party conventions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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