Tesla's Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,000 vehicles—missing analyst consensus by about 8,000 units amid a record 50,000-unit inventory buildup—have anchored trader sentiment for Q2 around the 350,000–400,000 range, with 375k–400k and 350k–375k outcomes nearly tied at 29.5% and 26.5% implied probabilities. Softening electric vehicle demand, U.S. tax credit changes, and a 28% drop in domestic EV sales have heightened caution, despite Cybertruck production ramps at Giga Texas and brief Model Y retooling pauses. Competitive pressures from BYD and others limit upside, while the April 22 earnings call could swing odds via Q2 guidance or demand signals, underscoring the closely contested recovery path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트37만5천–40만 30%
35만~37.5만 27%
40만~42만5천 23%
425천–450천 15%
$14,027 거래량
$14,027 거래량
2026.06.30
30만 미만
2%
30만~32.5만
2%
32.5만~35만
1%
35만~37.5만
27%
37만5천–40만
30%
40만~42만5천
23%
425천–450천
15%
45만~47만 5천
2%
47만5천+
1%
37만5천–40만 30%
35만~37.5만 27%
40만~42만5천 23%
425천–450천 15%
$14,027 거래량
$14,027 거래량
2026.06.30
30만 미만
$227 거래량
2%
30만~32.5만
$316 거래량
2%
32.5만~35만
$355 거래량
1%
35만~37.5만
$5,241 거래량
27%
37만5천–40만
$539 거래량
30%
40만~42만5천
$5,272 거래량
23%
425천–450천
$1,583 거래량
15%
45만~47만 5천
$305 거래량
2%
47만5천+
$189 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,000 vehicles—missing analyst consensus by about 8,000 units amid a record 50,000-unit inventory buildup—have anchored trader sentiment for Q2 around the 350,000–400,000 range, with 375k–400k and 350k–375k outcomes nearly tied at 29.5% and 26.5% implied probabilities. Softening electric vehicle demand, U.S. tax credit changes, and a 28% drop in domestic EV sales have heightened caution, despite Cybertruck production ramps at Giga Texas and brief Model Y retooling pauses. Competitive pressures from BYD and others limit upside, while the April 22 earnings call could swing odds via Q2 guidance or demand signals, underscoring the closely contested recovery path.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
마켓 개설일: Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
거래량
$14,027종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,000 vehicles—missing analyst consensus by about 8,000 units amid a record 50,000-unit inventory buildup—have anchored trader sentiment for Q2 around the 350,000–400,000 range, with 375k–400k and 350k–375k outcomes nearly tied at 29.5% and 26.5% implied probabilities. Softening electric vehicle demand, U.S. tax credit changes, and a 28% drop in domestic EV sales have heightened caution, despite Cybertruck production ramps at Giga Texas and brief Model Y retooling pauses. Competitive pressures from BYD and others limit upside, while the April 22 earnings call could swing odds via Q2 guidance or demand signals, underscoring the closely contested recovery path.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
거래량
$14,027종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla's Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,000 vehicles—missing analyst consensus by about 8,000 units amid a record 50,000-unit inventory buildup—have anchored trader sentiment for Q2 around the 350,000–400,000 range, with 375k–400k and 350k–375k outcomes nearly tied at 29.5% and 26.5% implied probabilities. Softening electric vehicle demand, U.S. tax credit changes, and a 28% drop in domestic EV sales have heightened caution, despite Cybertruck production ramps at Giga Texas and brief Model Y retooling pauses. Competitive pressures from BYD and others limit upside, while the April 22 earnings call could swing odds via Q2 guidance or demand signals, underscoring the closely contested recovery path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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