Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability for positive US real GDP growth in 2026, driven by authoritative forecasts averaging 2.2-2.5% from the CBO, IMF, Deloitte, and Philadelphia Fed survey, bolstered by resilient consumer spending and AI-driven investment. Recent March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—exceeding estimates—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, offsetting Q4 2025's slowdown to 0.5% annualized; Atlanta Fed's GDPNow holds Q1 2026 at 1.3%. The FOMC's March decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% anticipates one cut amid moderating inflation risks. Challenges include March CPI's 3.3% year-over-year surge potentially delaying easing, or geopolitical shocks amplifying energy costs; Q1 GDP advance estimate due late April could shift sentiment if below 1%.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$19,657 거래량
$19,657 거래량
2027.01.29
예
$19,657 거래량
$19,657 거래량
2027.01.29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability for positive US real GDP growth in 2026, driven by authoritative forecasts averaging 2.2-2.5% from the CBO, IMF, Deloitte, and Philadelphia Fed survey, bolstered by resilient consumer spending and AI-driven investment. Recent March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—exceeding estimates—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, offsetting Q4 2025's slowdown to 0.5% annualized; Atlanta Fed's GDPNow holds Q1 2026 at 1.3%. The FOMC's March decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% anticipates one cut amid moderating inflation risks. Challenges include March CPI's 3.3% year-over-year surge potentially delaying easing, or geopolitical shocks amplifying energy costs; Q1 GDP advance estimate due late April could shift sentiment if below 1%.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
거래량
$19,657종료일
2027.01.29마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability for positive US real GDP growth in 2026, driven by authoritative forecasts averaging 2.2-2.5% from the CBO, IMF, Deloitte, and Philadelphia Fed survey, bolstered by resilient consumer spending and AI-driven investment. Recent March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—exceeding estimates—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, offsetting Q4 2025's slowdown to 0.5% annualized; Atlanta Fed's GDPNow holds Q1 2026 at 1.3%. The FOMC's March decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% anticipates one cut amid moderating inflation risks. Challenges include March CPI's 3.3% year-over-year surge potentially delaying easing, or geopolitical shocks amplifying energy costs; Q1 GDP advance estimate due late April could shift sentiment if below 1%.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
거래량
$19,657종료일
2027.01.29마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability for positive US real GDP growth in 2026, driven by authoritative forecasts averaging 2.2-2.5% from the CBO, IMF, Deloitte, and Philadelphia Fed survey, bolstered by resilient consumer spending and AI-driven investment. Recent March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs—exceeding estimates—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, offsetting Q4 2025's slowdown to 0.5% annualized; Atlanta Fed's GDPNow holds Q1 2026 at 1.3%. The FOMC's March decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% anticipates one cut amid moderating inflation risks. Challenges include March CPI's 3.3% year-over-year surge potentially delaying easing, or geopolitical shocks amplifying energy costs; Q1 GDP advance estimate due late April could shift sentiment if below 1%.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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