Duke Rodriguez holds a trader consensus edge at 52% implied probability for the June 2 Republican primary after the New Mexico Supreme Court on April 1 upheld a lower court dismissal of challenges questioning his residency and campaign filings, ensuring his ballot access despite failing to clear the GOP pre-primary convention threshold in March. Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, who led delegate votes at that Ruidoso convention with strong party backing and recent industry endorsements, trails closely at 38.5% on his executive record in the fast-growing suburb. Absent public polls, odds hinge on these procedural wins and insider momentum in a fragmented field, with the primary six weeks out.