Trader consensus prices a Mejia victory margin of 20-30% in the NJ-11 special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, reflecting the district's D+5 Cook PVI lean, her March GBAO poll edge of 53%-36% over Joe Hathaway, and Sherrill's 2024 57%-42% win amid low-turnout special election dynamics favoring Democrats. The tight clustering between 20-25% (49%) and 25-30% (44%) odds underscores uncertainty over final turnout in suburban battlegrounds like Morris and Sussex counties, where GOP base mobilization amid the slim House majority could narrow the gap from early results showing ~40% leads at partial counts. Fundraising superiority (2:1) and Sherrill's pre-election rally bolster Mejia, but heavier Republican absentee or Election Day voting might push under 20% (25%), while sustained Democratic enthusiasm expands it.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Mejia 35-40% 24%
Mejia 25-30% 22%
Mejia 40%+ 6%
Other <1%
$2,471 거래량
$2,471 거래량
2026.04.16
Mejia 40%+
8%
Mejia 35-40%
20%
Mejia 30-35%
34%
Mejia 25-30%
44%
Mejia 20-25%
50%
Mejia <20%
44%
Other
<1%
Mejia 35-40% 24%
Mejia 25-30% 22%
Mejia 40%+ 6%
Other <1%
$2,471 거래량
$2,471 거래량
2026.04.16
Mejia 40%+
$140 거래량
8%
Mejia 35-40%
$319 거래량
20%
Mejia 30-35%
$628 거래량
34%
Mejia 25-30%
$379 거래량
44%
Mejia 20-25%
$199 거래량
50%
Mejia <20%
$472 거래량
44%
Other
$335 거래량
<1%
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus prices a Mejia victory margin of 20-30% in the NJ-11 special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, reflecting the district's D+5 Cook PVI lean, her March GBAO poll edge of 53%-36% over Joe Hathaway, and Sherrill's 2024 57%-42% win amid low-turnout special election dynamics favoring Democrats. The tight clustering between 20-25% (49%) and 25-30% (44%) odds underscores uncertainty over final turnout in suburban battlegrounds like Morris and Sussex counties, where GOP base mobilization amid the slim House majority could narrow the gap from early results showing ~40% leads at partial counts. Fundraising superiority (2:1) and Sherrill's pre-election rally bolster Mejia, but heavier Republican absentee or Election Day voting might push under 20% (25%), while sustained Democratic enthusiasm expands it.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
마켓 개설일: Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
거래량
$2,471종료일
2026.04.16마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus prices a Mejia victory margin of 20-30% in the NJ-11 special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, reflecting the district's D+5 Cook PVI lean, her March GBAO poll edge of 53%-36% over Joe Hathaway, and Sherrill's 2024 57%-42% win amid low-turnout special election dynamics favoring Democrats. The tight clustering between 20-25% (49%) and 25-30% (44%) odds underscores uncertainty over final turnout in suburban battlegrounds like Morris and Sussex counties, where GOP base mobilization amid the slim House majority could narrow the gap from early results showing ~40% leads at partial counts. Fundraising superiority (2:1) and Sherrill's pre-election rally bolster Mejia, but heavier Republican absentee or Election Day voting might push under 20% (25%), while sustained Democratic enthusiasm expands it.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
거래량
$2,471종료일
2026.04.16마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices a Mejia victory margin of 20-30% in the NJ-11 special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, reflecting the district's D+5 Cook PVI lean, her March GBAO poll edge of 53%-36% over Joe Hathaway, and Sherrill's 2024 57%-42% win amid low-turnout special election dynamics favoring Democrats. The tight clustering between 20-25% (49%) and 25-30% (44%) odds underscores uncertainty over final turnout in suburban battlegrounds like Morris and Sussex counties, where GOP base mobilization amid the slim House majority could narrow the gap from early results showing ~40% leads at partial counts. Fundraising superiority (2:1) and Sherrill's pre-election rally bolster Mejia, but heavier Republican absentee or Election Day voting might push under 20% (25%), while sustained Democratic enthusiasm expands it.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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