Trader consensus on Polymarket favors United Russia at 64.5% probability to secure the largest net seat gains in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its incumbency advantage with 315 current seats, strong Kremlin backing, and consistent polling leads of 30-40% in recent FOM and VCIOM surveys amid ongoing primaries and redistricting that bolsters urban strongholds. New People, holding just 15 seats, commands 29.5% implied odds due to sustained poll surges to 12.3% in early April VCIOM data—overtaking LDPR and KPRF for the third straight month—fueled by permitted opposition appeals on tech issues and economic discontent, positioning it for proportional representation and single-member district breakthroughs above the 5% threshold. LDPR's 5.1% reflects stable but stagnant mid-teens support, while systemic parties trail amid fragmentation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트통합 러시아(ER) 65%
뉴피플(NL) 29.5%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR) 5.1%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF) <1%
$5,488,597 거래량
$5,488,597 거래량
2026.09.30
통합 러시아(ER)
65%
뉴피플(NL)
30%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR)
5%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF)
<1%
공정 러시아 – 진실을 위하여(SRZP)
<1%
Rodina
<1%
시민 플랫폼(GP)
<1%
통합 러시아(ER) 65%
뉴피플(NL) 29.5%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR) 5.1%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF) <1%
$5,488,597 거래량
$5,488,597 거래량
2026.09.30
통합 러시아(ER)
$1,510,693 거래량
65%
뉴피플(NL)
$496,170 거래량
30%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR)
$2,130,604 거래량
5%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF)
$367,790 거래량
<1%
공정 러시아 – 진실을 위하여(SRZP)
$330,324 거래량
<1%
Rodina
$363,054 거래량
<1%
시민 플랫폼(GP)
$289,963 거래량
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors United Russia at 64.5% probability to secure the largest net seat gains in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its incumbency advantage with 315 current seats, strong Kremlin backing, and consistent polling leads of 30-40% in recent FOM and VCIOM surveys amid ongoing primaries and redistricting that bolsters urban strongholds. New People, holding just 15 seats, commands 29.5% implied odds due to sustained poll surges to 12.3% in early April VCIOM data—overtaking LDPR and KPRF for the third straight month—fueled by permitted opposition appeals on tech issues and economic discontent, positioning it for proportional representation and single-member district breakthroughs above the 5% threshold. LDPR's 5.1% reflects stable but stagnant mid-teens support, while systemic parties trail amid fragmentation.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
마켓 개설일: Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
거래량
$5,488,597종료일
2026.09.20마켓 개설일
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors United Russia at 64.5% probability to secure the largest net seat gains in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its incumbency advantage with 315 current seats, strong Kremlin backing, and consistent polling leads of 30-40% in recent FOM and VCIOM surveys amid ongoing primaries and redistricting that bolsters urban strongholds. New People, holding just 15 seats, commands 29.5% implied odds due to sustained poll surges to 12.3% in early April VCIOM data—overtaking LDPR and KPRF for the third straight month—fueled by permitted opposition appeals on tech issues and economic discontent, positioning it for proportional representation and single-member district breakthroughs above the 5% threshold. LDPR's 5.1% reflects stable but stagnant mid-teens support, while systemic parties trail amid fragmentation.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
거래량
$5,488,597종료일
2026.09.20마켓 개설일
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors United Russia at 64.5% probability to secure the largest net seat gains in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its incumbency advantage with 315 current seats, strong Kremlin backing, and consistent polling leads of 30-40% in recent FOM and VCIOM surveys amid ongoing primaries and redistricting that bolsters urban strongholds. New People, holding just 15 seats, commands 29.5% implied odds due to sustained poll surges to 12.3% in early April VCIOM data—overtaking LDPR and KPRF for the third straight month—fueled by permitted opposition appeals on tech issues and economic discontent, positioning it for proportional representation and single-member district breakthroughs above the 5% threshold. LDPR's 5.1% reflects stable but stagnant mid-teens support, while systemic parties trail amid fragmentation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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