Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 65% probability that United Russia will achieve the largest net seat gains in the September 2026 State Duma election, buoyed by its incumbency dominance (currently holding over 320 seats), administrative resources, and primaries underway since March with over 2,000 applicants, including special military operation participants receiving vote bonuses. Recent polls reflect economic headwinds like rising food and utility prices eroding United Russia's support to 30-40% (down from earlier highs), while New People surges to 12-16% in early April WCIOM and FOM surveys, positioning the party—starting from just 13 seats—for potentially outsized gains in party-list and single-member districts amid Kremlin electoral engineering and opposition restrictions. Stagnant showings keep LDPR, KPRF, and others as longshots.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트통합 러시아(ER) 65%
뉴피플(NL) 29.9%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR) 5.1%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF) <1%
$5,486,461 거래량
$5,486,461 거래량
2026.09.30
통합 러시아(ER)
65%
뉴피플(NL)
30%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR)
5%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF)
<1%
공정 러시아 – 진실을 위하여(SRZP)
<1%
Rodina
<1%
시민 플랫폼(GP)
<1%
통합 러시아(ER) 65%
뉴피플(NL) 29.9%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR) 5.1%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF) <1%
$5,486,461 거래량
$5,486,461 거래량
2026.09.30
통합 러시아(ER)
$1,509,822 거래량
65%
뉴피플(NL)
$495,961 거래량
30%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR)
$2,130,466 거래량
5%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF)
$367,652 거래량
<1%
공정 러시아 – 진실을 위하여(SRZP)
$330,186 거래량
<1%
Rodina
$362,566 거래량
<1%
시민 플랫폼(GP)
$289,809 거래량
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 65% probability that United Russia will achieve the largest net seat gains in the September 2026 State Duma election, buoyed by its incumbency dominance (currently holding over 320 seats), administrative resources, and primaries underway since March with over 2,000 applicants, including special military operation participants receiving vote bonuses. Recent polls reflect economic headwinds like rising food and utility prices eroding United Russia's support to 30-40% (down from earlier highs), while New People surges to 12-16% in early April WCIOM and FOM surveys, positioning the party—starting from just 13 seats—for potentially outsized gains in party-list and single-member districts amid Kremlin electoral engineering and opposition restrictions. Stagnant showings keep LDPR, KPRF, and others as longshots.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
마켓 개설일: Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
거래량
$5,486,461종료일
2026.09.20마켓 개설일
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 65% probability that United Russia will achieve the largest net seat gains in the September 2026 State Duma election, buoyed by its incumbency dominance (currently holding over 320 seats), administrative resources, and primaries underway since March with over 2,000 applicants, including special military operation participants receiving vote bonuses. Recent polls reflect economic headwinds like rising food and utility prices eroding United Russia's support to 30-40% (down from earlier highs), while New People surges to 12-16% in early April WCIOM and FOM surveys, positioning the party—starting from just 13 seats—for potentially outsized gains in party-list and single-member districts amid Kremlin electoral engineering and opposition restrictions. Stagnant showings keep LDPR, KPRF, and others as longshots.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
거래량
$5,486,461종료일
2026.09.20마켓 개설일
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 65% probability that United Russia will achieve the largest net seat gains in the September 2026 State Duma election, buoyed by its incumbency dominance (currently holding over 320 seats), administrative resources, and primaries underway since March with over 2,000 applicants, including special military operation participants receiving vote bonuses. Recent polls reflect economic headwinds like rising food and utility prices eroding United Russia's support to 30-40% (down from earlier highs), while New People surges to 12-16% in early April WCIOM and FOM surveys, positioning the party—starting from just 13 seats—for potentially outsized gains in party-list and single-member districts amid Kremlin electoral engineering and opposition restrictions. Stagnant showings keep LDPR, KPRF, and others as longshots.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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