Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone release cadence, with flagships consistently debuting in September. Recent leaks from supply chain analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo and Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, reported in the past week, confirm iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models are on track for a fall 2026 launch alongside a foldable "iPhone Ultra," featuring upgrades like 2nm A20 Pro chips, 48MP periscope cameras, and enhanced 5G modems—while the base iPhone 18 may slip to spring 2027. This aligns historical patterns where Pro variants anchor the yearly cycle. Realistic challenges include severe supply disruptions, a full strategic pivot to biennial releases amid foldable focus, or regulatory delays, though no such signals have emerged. Watch for June WWDC hints or September event confirmation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$85,179 거래량
$85,179 거래량
2026.12.31
$85,179 거래량
$85,179 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone release cadence, with flagships consistently debuting in September. Recent leaks from supply chain analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo and Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, reported in the past week, confirm iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models are on track for a fall 2026 launch alongside a foldable "iPhone Ultra," featuring upgrades like 2nm A20 Pro chips, 48MP periscope cameras, and enhanced 5G modems—while the base iPhone 18 may slip to spring 2027. This aligns historical patterns where Pro variants anchor the yearly cycle. Realistic challenges include severe supply disruptions, a full strategic pivot to biennial releases amid foldable focus, or regulatory delays, though no such signals have emerged. Watch for June WWDC hints or September event confirmation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
거래량
$85,179종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone release cadence, with flagships consistently debuting in September. Recent leaks from supply chain analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo and Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, reported in the past week, confirm iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models are on track for a fall 2026 launch alongside a foldable "iPhone Ultra," featuring upgrades like 2nm A20 Pro chips, 48MP periscope cameras, and enhanced 5G modems—while the base iPhone 18 may slip to spring 2027. This aligns historical patterns where Pro variants anchor the yearly cycle. Realistic challenges include severe supply disruptions, a full strategic pivot to biennial releases amid foldable focus, or regulatory delays, though no such signals have emerged. Watch for June WWDC hints or September event confirmation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$85,179종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone release cadence, with flagships consistently debuting in September. Recent leaks from supply chain analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo and Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, reported in the past week, confirm iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models are on track for a fall 2026 launch alongside a foldable "iPhone Ultra," featuring upgrades like 2nm A20 Pro chips, 48MP periscope cameras, and enhanced 5G modems—while the base iPhone 18 may slip to spring 2027. This aligns historical patterns where Pro variants anchor the yearly cycle. Realistic challenges include severe supply disruptions, a full strategic pivot to biennial releases amid foldable focus, or regulatory delays, though no such signals have emerged. Watch for June WWDC hints or September event confirmation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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