Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced each September, forms the core driver behind the 96.2% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this schedule across recent generations amid steady progress in custom silicon, display technology, and camera systems, with no official indications of a delay or skipped year. Traders factor in historical precedent while noting low-probability risks such as severe supply chain constraints or regulatory delays in major markets that could shift timelines, though these have rarely altered the overall pattern. Key catalysts ahead include Apple's next developer conference and earnings updates that could confirm component readiness.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$112,537 거래량
$112,537 거래량
2026.12.31
$112,537 거래량
$112,537 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced each September, forms the core driver behind the 96.2% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this schedule across recent generations amid steady progress in custom silicon, display technology, and camera systems, with no official indications of a delay or skipped year. Traders factor in historical precedent while noting low-probability risks such as severe supply chain constraints or regulatory delays in major markets that could shift timelines, though these have rarely altered the overall pattern. Key catalysts ahead include Apple's next developer conference and earnings updates that could confirm component readiness.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
거래량
$112,537종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced each September, forms the core driver behind the 96.2% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this schedule across recent generations amid steady progress in custom silicon, display technology, and camera systems, with no official indications of a delay or skipped year. Traders factor in historical precedent while noting low-probability risks such as severe supply chain constraints or regulatory delays in major markets that could shift timelines, though these have rarely altered the overall pattern. Key catalysts ahead include Apple's next developer conference and earnings updates that could confirm component readiness.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$112,537종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced each September, forms the core driver behind the 96.2% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this schedule across recent generations amid steady progress in custom silicon, display technology, and camera systems, with no official indications of a delay or skipped year. Traders factor in historical precedent while noting low-probability risks such as severe supply chain constraints or regulatory delays in major markets that could shift timelines, though these have rarely altered the overall pattern. Key catalysts ahead include Apple's next developer conference and earnings updates that could confirm component readiness.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문